Will losses be more than Tony Blair’s feared one in ten? As Tony Blair seeks to focus wavering Labour supporters on the implications of “one in ten†supporters from last time not going with the party on Thursday it’s worth looking again at some the detail from recent polls. We have raised this before but according to the last ICM poll for which there is full data the equivalent of 2 out of every 11 people told the interviewer that…
Has Tony Blair repeated the 1997 and 2001 magic? Tony Blair is heading for another landslide according to the Martin Baxter formula which takes a weighted average of the latest polls and then applies the changes on a uniform swing basis to each individual seat. The Baxter “poll of polls†has LAB 38.8: CON 31.1: LD 22.2 which in terms of projected seats in the next House of Commons comes out at CON 166: LAB 395: LD 57 His figures…
Predicted Labour majority 80 seats (+2) Predicted vote shares LAB 37 ( -0.3) : CON 33.2 (-0.4): LD 22.2 (+0.2) Labour’s projected majority in our balance of money prediction based on the collective decisions of spread-betting gamblers sees the party move up two seats. This is caused almost entirely by the sad death of the Liberal Democrat candidate in Staffordshire which means that there will be no election in this Tory stronghold on Thursday. The vote share projection show moves…
Thank you to all those site users who have made donations to help keep the site going. Thanks also to those who have used links when betting or opening an account with a bookmaker. The donation facility came in response to requests from site users. To do it online send me an email with an amount on it to mikes245@yahoo.com and you will get back a notification from PayPal for a secure transfer. The competition is now up and running…
This is our General Election competition for which the winner will receive from BinaryBet.com the sum of £1000 in an account that will be opened. Please post entries in the comments section below BEFORE 1159 PM on Tuesday evening. Please do not use this comments section for anything other than entries – a separate thread for comment on the competition will be opened. Any comments left in the entry thread will be deleted. Please ensure that when you file your…
Labour maintains its 3% YouGov lead as activists wait to watch the postal votes being opened A YouGov poll in Monday’s Telegraph has CON 33 (nc) 36(nc): LD 24 (+1). An ICM poll might be published as well overnight and we will update this as soon as it is available. Overall the figures are very stable with the CON-LAB split staying about the same and the Lib Dems showing an improvement. It has been a quiet day on the betting…
A number of people have been in contact asking how they can help towards the cost of running the site. In response I have now set up a PayPal account. All you do if you wish to make a contribution is to drop me an email at Mikes245@yahoo.com stating the amount. You then receive an email from PayPal where you can make a payment using the secure online facilities. Any help would be greatly appreciated. Our bandwidth usage looks set…
The numbers still looks good for Tony The final list of Sunday paper polls is:- MORI: LAB 36 (nc): CON 33(-1): LD 22 (-1) Communicate Research LAB 39 (-1): CON 31 (-4): LD 23 (+5) YouGov: LAB 36 (nc) : CON 33 (+1): LD 23 (-1) ICM LAB 39 (-1): CON 31 (-2): LD 22 (+2) British Polling Index: LAB 37 (+1): CON 33 (nc): LD 21 (-1) This has prompted almost no change in the Commons seats spreadbetting markets….