Iraq: The Attorney-General’s advice to Blair leaked – Mail on Sunday Three exclusives in the Mail on Sunday, the Telegraph and the Times this morning might change the agenda as we move into the final full week of the campaign. Probably the most serious is the reported leaking to the Mail on Sunday of the Attorney-General’s advice on the legality of the Iraq War and could provide the opening for the Lib Dems and the Tories to, once again, raise…
Should Kennedy be gloomy or happy – who knows? The first of the polls for the Sunday papers are now out and the big variation is over the Lib Dems. One has them down at 18% while another has them 23% – a variation of more than a quarter. The pollsters cannot all be right and this could have a big impact on the final result. The Sunday polls with comparisons on the last similar survey from the same pollster…
Markets stable as first postal votes go out Projected UK-wide vote shares: LAB 36.9 (nc ): CON 33.8 (+0.1) : LD 21.5 (nc ) Projected Election Outcome LAB majority 76 seats (nc) Within the next day or so the first postal vote packs will be delivered and electors will start putting their crosses on ballot paper. The experience of the all-postal voting experiment is that people do not leave the ballot forms about and the majority return them very quickly….
St George’s day is as good a time as any to look again at one hurdle that Michael Howard should be able to surmount on May 5 – the Conservatives could win most votes in England. Four years ago they were just six points adrift south of the border and if voting goes according to our BALANCE OF MONEY predictions then Michael Howard’s party will win the popular vote in this part of the UK. With 529 seats of the…
Will this be the scene outside Labour HQ two weeks today? If our balance of money predictions are anything to go by then political gamblers believe that Tony Blair is heading for a return to Downing Street with a substantial majority even though Labour will poll less than 37% of the national vote. Projected UK vote shares: LAB 36.9 (nc): CON 33.7 (-0.2) : LD 21.5 (-0.1)) Projected Election Outcome LAB majority 76 seats (nc) With the polls stabilising the…
Can Tory voters be motivated and Labour ones demotivated at the same time Ever since Lynton Crosby was appointed as Tory Campaign chief last October I have been intrigued by the possibility that he could play a final week tactic that worked to bring John Howard to power in the 1996 Australian General Election. There, as things looked bleak John Howard all but conceded the election but urged that on polling day voters would “send a message†to the then…
As the projected majority moves to 76 what’s left of Michael Howard’s dream? With today’s BALANCE OF MONEY prediction seeing another rise in the projected Labour majority and only a fortnight to go to polling day is there anything left in this election for Michael Howard and the Tory party. In just fifteen days our predictions, based on the collective view of gamblers on the UK’s main spread-betting markets, has seen the projected Labour majority move from 52 seats on…
Tories static – Lib Dems up 2 at expense of Labour Today’s Guardian ICM poll with changes on Monday survey by the same pollsters has CON 33 (nc): LAB 39 (-2): LD 22 (+2). The increase for Charles Kennedy’s party is in line with other recent polls. The party, however, sees a decline in its support in the latest daily tracking poll from the British Electoral Study of those certain to vote where the figures are CON 35.3(-0.2):LAB 36.2(+0.7): LD…