Markets stable as first postal votes go out

Projected UK-wide vote shares: LAB 36.9 (nc ): CON 33.8 (+0.1) : LD 21.5 (nc )

Projected Election Outcome LAB majority 76 seats (nc)

Within the next day or so the first postal vote packs will be delivered and electors will start putting their crosses on ballot paper. The experience of the all-postal voting experiment is that people do not leave the ballot forms about and the majority return them very quickly. So for a section of the population the election will be over by early next week.

This will start to make the opinion polls into partial exit polls because at least a sixth of the samples are likely to have voted in this way and completed the process ahead of the final week’s polls. Whether this makes the surveys more accurate or not is hard to say – certainly that was not the experience in the 2004 Euro elections.

With no new full polls today and at least five expected overnight it has been a very quiet day on the General Election betting markets.

BET OF THE DAY Evens on the turnout being 63% or more. The high levels of postal voting and the nature of the campaign will surely see more people voting than four years ago.

NOTE: The regular BALANCE OF MONEY predictions are based on how spread betting gamblers are investing their money on all the main UK markets from Spreadfair, IG Index, and Sporting Index.

A full round-up of all General Election Betting is available here

Mike Smithson