The Balance of Money predictions

The Balance of Money predictions


    As the projected majority moves to 76 what’s left of Michael Howard’s dream?

With today’s BALANCE OF MONEY prediction seeing another rise in the projected Labour majority and only a fortnight to go to polling day is there anything left in this election for Michael Howard and the Tory party.

In just fifteen days our predictions, based on the collective view of gamblers on the UK’s main spread-betting markets, has seen the projected Labour majority move from 52 seats on April 6th to our new high figure today of 76 seats.

That’s a jump of 24 seats and the market sentiment remains against the Tories even though the polls have moved just a notch back in their favour.

    For even if the polls are over-stating Labour by as much as they did four years ago the Tories would only be level-pegging in terms of vote share and Tony Blair would still be there with a working majority.

Is there anything that Howard can do to rescue the situation or is the best strategy to hope that potential Labour voters might not feel the need to vote because there is no credible threat of a return of the Tories?

On the balance of money predictions it is not clear why both the Labour and Tory parties are down but that the Lib Dems remain static.

  • Projected UK vote shares: LAB 36.9 (-0.5): CON 33.9 (-0.2) : LD 21.6 (nc))
  • Projected Election Outcome LAB majority 76 seats (+2)
  • NOTE: The regular BALANCE OF MONEY predictions are based on how spread betting gamblers are investing their money on all the main UK markets from Spreadfair, IG Index, and Sporting Index

    A full round-up of all General Election Betting is available here

    Mike Smithson

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