Labour lose out to the Lib Dems This month’s MORI’s puts the two main parties next and neck and reports a big boost for the Liberal Democrats, at the expense of Labour. The figures – which are based on those certain to vote – are CON 37(nc): LAB 37 (-2): LD 20% (+2). This is the first time for six months that the Tories have not been behind Labour in a survey from one of the main polling organisations and…
Will these supporters vote for Blair? Could the standard theory of General Elections being decided by which party appeals best to swing voters be turned on its head during the coming campaign? In a new article just published on the MORI website the firm’s Roger Mortimore suggests that because turnout looks like being the main issue for all the parties then those that get most of their core votes out will be the ones to succeed. And this could change…
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Are we missing something? Having not taken a four figure bet for the Conservatives to win the General Election all year, bookmakers William Hill have now taken a five figure bet for them – the biggest struck on them since Michael Howard took over – and shortened their odds as a result. Hills took the £10,000 bet at odds of 13/2 and have now cut the Conservatives to 11/2 to emerge as the largest single Party. Labour’s odds have been…
Let’s liven up the betting Notwithstanding yesterday’s BES poll giving the Tories a 2.8% lead amongst those “certain to vote†the weight of polling evidence is that the chances of Michael Howard’s party winning most seats, let alone gaining a Westminster majority, are very slim indeed. For even if the pollsters are overstating Labour’s leads by as much as the 6.6% of 2001 the polls are doggedly showing that Tories are still behind and even if they managed to get…
Only a few days to go to the “off” It looks as though the phoney war is nearly over. According to the BBC’s Political Editor, Andrew Marr, Tony Blair is likely to name 5 May as election day when Parliament returns from its Easter break. Andrew Marr says Mr Blair will ask the Queen on 4 or 5 April to dissolve Parliament at the end of that week. Although everybody is saying that May 5th is a certainty – and…
As we predicted last night the ICM poll has resulted in a sharp move back to Labour on the spread-betting markets. The spread bookmakers have marked the party up and marked the Tories and Lib Dems down. There’s been almost no movement, however, on the Spreadfair spread betting exchange where prices respond to what individual punters put up not on what the bookmaker decides. IG Index – LAB 353-358 (+3): CON 197-202 (-2): LD 66-69 (-2) Spreadfair – LAB 350…
But British Electoral Survey has Tory lead of 2.8% amongst those “certain to vote” After the euphoria in the Tory ranks following the February ICM poll it’s is down to earth with a bang after the publication of this month’s survey. What seemed an attainable gap of just three points in February is now eight points and we are back in Labour landslide land. But the only blot on the horizon for Tony Blair’s party was news last night of…