UPDATED 2245 Restoring the smile on Tony Blair’s face The ICM March survey for the Guardian tomorrow gives a real boost to the Labour campaign and shows a big increase since the last survey a month ago. The figures are:- LAB 40 (+3): Con 32 (-2): LD 20 (-1). [But the BBC’s Newsnight programme has reported tonight that a poll by the British Election Survey has the Tories ahead amongst those who are certain to vote. We have not been…
Tell us more about yourself From the comments on our busy discussion forums it’s clear that a lot of Politicalbetting “regulars” are PPCs. If you are one of those then please could you drop me a note and send me a picture (smallish please). I’m sure that others on the site will be interested to hear about you and to see what you are like. It will also add to the interest on election night and we might be able…
But what will be the turnout? An ICM poll for the Guardian tomorrow shows that Labour’s support among Britain’s minority ethnic voters has fallen sharply since the last general election. Even so the party still enjoys a commanding lead with these sections of the electorate The poll shares from the survey were: LAB 58: LD 23: CON 14 The Labour figure is significantly lower than the 75% who backed Tony Blair’s party in the 2001 general election. There’s no reason…
1 If it’s not Gordon Brown – then who? The Irish bookmaker, PaddyPower, has created a interesting new market on who will present the next budget. What’s good about it is that it raises so many issues:- Will Labour win with a decisive majority? Probably, but there’s just a chance that they might falter. If so will Gordon Brown – 4/7 – get replaced or be promoted? If Brown became PM who would he pick as HIS Chancellor? Could it…
Is a rising Lib Dem figure bad news for Labour? A YouGov poll in the Sunday Times tomorrow shows only small changes on the pollster’s last survey in the Telegraph poll at the end of last month. The shares are CON 32 (nc): LAB 37(-1):LD 23(+2). So good news for the LDs and disappointing figures for the Tories from the pollster that always used to give them the best ratings. We’ve been arguing here for months that the dynamic that…
How Lynton Crosby helped another Howard to win 4 elections in Australia An interesting feature in the Guardian today by Sandra Laville on the methods of Lynton Crosby – the Australian who has been drafted in by Michael Howard to run the Tory campaign – gives a sense of what we might expect from the Tories in the final 45 days of this campaign. Based on interviews with those who have worked with and against Crosby during his four succesful…
Survey gets reaction to Howard’s abortion stance A YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph shows that most people, including a large majority of women, agree with Michael Howard that the 24-week time limit on legal abortions should be cut back. And while the vast majority of respondents said that abortion would not affect the way they vote 13% said they would be “more likely to vote Conservative” as against 9% saying they would be less likely. So if YouGov have…
AMENDED Seven out of eight seats change hands With a May 5th election just 47 days away the results from last night’s local by-elections show six of the eight seats changing hands. The Lib Dems win four and lose two Labour win one and lose three The Tories win two and lose one In two seats the turnout was above 40%; in three it was in the 30s; and in three seats it was in the 20s. These seem very…