- Is a rising Lib Dem figure bad news for Labour?
A YouGov poll in the Sunday Times tomorrow shows only small changes on the pollster’s last survey in the Telegraph poll at the end of last month.
The shares are CON 32 (nc): LAB 37(-1):LD 23(+2).
So good news for the LDs and disappointing figures for the Tories from the pollster that always used to give them the best ratings.
We’ve been arguing here for months that the dynamic that will decide the election is the Labour – Lib Dem relationship and this poll shows a big decline in the margin over Charles Kennedy’s party – down now to just 14%.
If the Lib Dems appear to be getting momentum then it could encourage further LD switchers and reduce the tactical vote element that helped Blair in 2001.
A feature of YouGov that should be noted is that for every person surveyed who had registered with the firm as voting Lib Dem last time the figures are adjusted so that there are four who recorded they voted Labour.
We expect that the Tory spread betting range will drop by one or two seats. It has been pushed higher on the back of recent poll changes and this survey will cause this to falter.
- The Lib Dem seat prices should rise following the best poll figure for months.
UPDATE: Two other national polls this morning are on the abortion issue.
ICM in the Sunday Telegraph found 53% of people supporting a reduction to 20 weeks, with 30% disapproving of such a change. 26% of people told ICM that a candidateâ€™s views would make a difference to how they would vote.
NOP in the Sunday Express found â€œnearly 60%â€ supported a reduction in the time limit with 24% saying they were happy with current rules.