You need more than 13/10 for value on the Democrat ticket? Three recent polls showing 3-4% leads for George Bush have knocked some of the confidence from the Kerry-Edwards campaign that seemed to be on a roll. One of them, Zogby, is showing a 4% Bush lead which is even more striking because for the past two months its methodology seems to have favoured Kerry. But two state polls, in New Jersey and Florida have given a boost to the…
bbc Is Tony Blair in danger of going the way of Neil Hamilton? With all the focus on the White House Race we have yet to catch up with with the plan by Martin Bell or another prominent TV journalist to run against Tony Blair in his Sedgefield constituency. The idea would be to repeat what Bell did in Tatton in 1997 where the Lib Dems and Labour pulled out to give him a clear run against Neil Hamilton. If…
bbc Is the best bet not to bet? With the UK General Election perhaps only seven months away it’s becoming harder and harder to find any good value bets. On the main Who’ll get most seats? the best that can be had on Labour is 1/5. It’s hard to call for any other party but if the pollsters are exaggerating Labour by as much as they were in 2001 then it is just possible that the bet might be a…
Three polls taken after last night’s final TV debate have made John Kerry the winner. Gallup gave it to the Democratic challenger by 52% to 39%, A CBS poll of uncommitted voters gave it to Kerry by 39% to 25% An ABC News poll made it Kerry by 42% to 41%. This poll consisted of 38% Republicans and 30% Democrats The latest electoral vote calculation , based on state polls, has Bush ahead. The price on Kerry has tightended and…
Would a proper apology take the wind out of Charles Kennedy’s sails? Given that Tony Blair is the master of stealing the policies of his opponents how is he going to deal with the Lib Dem threat? Just what announcement can we expect in the run up to the Election that will do for Charles Kennedy’s party what the EU referendum announcement did for the Tories? An intriguing thought is that he could, with his usual impeccable timing and with…
Polls – neck and neck: electoral votes – Bush noses ahead With the two contenders going into their final debate there’ve been seven new polls in the past two days and it’s neck and neck. Some have got Bush ahead – others have Kerry. The good news for Kerry is that Gallup which was reporting big leads for Bush is now showing the Democrat ahead. The electoral vote calculator, based on state polls, is now showing a small Bush lead….
Are Peter Kellner’s benchmarks correct? The political commentator and head of the YouGov polling organisation, Peter Kellner, has posted an article asking this question – How deep a hole are the Tories in? He starts:- The short answer is: very. Here are some benchmarks by which to judge the Conservatives. Their vote share in 1997: 31%. In 2001: 33%. Needed to form a bare majority in the House of Commons: at least 40%. Needed six months before the start of…
What will Westminster-lite do for the spread markets? Saturday’s opening of the Scottish Parliament building is a timely reminder that the boundary changes north of the border at Westminster will have a big impact at the General Election, particuarly on the number of Labour seats. Until now Scotand has sent 72 MPs to Westminster from constituencies that have an average of 55,000 electors compared with 70,000 in England. Boundary changes have reduced this to 59 and it’s been worked out…