Betfair George Bush – UPDATED 8am BST Thursday With the two daily tracking polls showing further movement to Kerry there’s been a big push on the betting markets in his direction. The TIPP daily survey has moved from a 6% Bush lead to a 4% one while Zogby’s tracking number has moved from a 3% Bush lead to a margin of just one point. The chart above shows how the £3m Betfair betting exchange market has moved and the trend…
We publish this article not because we think that it will happen but to demonstrate how with support for the two main parties in the 30s a totally different dynamic will apply at the next election and issues like polling accuracy and the tactical unwind will become even more critical. Last time Labour was so far ahead that inflated leads did not matter. Now they do. Today’s ICM poll in the Guardian – LAB 37% CON 31% LIBD 23% –…
Three of the latest five national opinion polls on the White House race have Kerry in the lead according to the new round-up just out. The polls are: Kerry 49 Bush 47 – DCorps Kerry 46 Bush 49 – Zogby Kerry 49 Bush 48 – ABC Kerry 50 Bush 48 – Washington Post Kerry 43 Bush 49 – TIPP The latest electoral vote calculations based on state polls have it Kerry 247 to Bush 286. The Slate.com score-chart has it…
With three new national polls puting Bush aread, two giving it to Kerry, and one recording a tie the race for the White House is on a knife-edge. The big problem for the Democrats is that one of the polls has an 8% Bush lead while another has it at 5%. The two polls showing Kerry ahead put the margin at 1%. There’s no doubt that Bill Clinton’s entry into the campaign has been a boost for Kerry and this…
Or will they benefit from the UKIP leadership hiatus? After almost three weeks without any UK national polls ICM, MORI and YouGov should be out in the next few days hopefully giving a clearer view of what the public is thinking than surveys taken at party conference time. Four years ago the end-October/early November surveys proved to be a good pointer to the election result the following June. Will the same happen this time? The Tories. Are they still in…
Martin Baxter is considering incorporating the tactical vote question The former Cambridge and City maths expert, Martin Baxter, (above) has announced on his site that he is considering trying to embrace an element on tactical voting within his famous Commons Seat Calculator. Over the years Martin has built up a formidable reputation with his calculator which is now the authoritive source for people wanting to work out what different vote shares mean in terms of Commons seats. His site also…
cnn Get 4/1 on a prolonged legal battle With the White House race on a knife-edge you can now bet on whether we’ll have to wait until December 13 or beyond before the result is certified. If the result is as close as predicted then we could have a repetiton of 2000 when pro-longed legal wrangles over Florida finally ended in the Supreme Court (above). Tradesports – the Irish betting exchange that serves the US – is offering punters to…
The money piles on an early capture There been a lot of activity on the Tradesports market on Osama Bin Laden being found by the end of the year and it is now listed as the betting exchange’s fifth most traded contract. It comes after the White House race itself and three NFL matches. The price has tightened in the past day to less than 6/1 on him being “neutralised”. The lay price has also gone up to 15/2. The…