The London Mayoral race has the feel of the 1992 General Election about it. Then Kinnock was in the lead right until one final poll (top right on picture) which showed Labour and the Tories level pegging. John Major went on to win by 8%. For in the past whenever the Tories have been seen to recover sharply in an eve of election survey they have gone on to win by a mile. Apart from 1992 this happened at the…
What punters are being asked to do with the London Mayor market is bet on which polling methodology they most trust. Is it the tried and tested conventional survey conducted by telephone interviewers or is it the new kid on the block, YouGov, which does it all on the internet and is led by the former political journalist, Peter Kellner (above). The form-book is with YouGov – they got the 2001 General Election right; they got the 2002 London Borough…
How many of these will YOU be counting on Friday? This is in tonight’s Evening Standard:- Among all potential electors, Mr Livingstone is 11 points ahead of Mr Norris’s 26%. When the crucial second preference votes are taken into account, this translates into 55% to the Tory candidate’s 45%. Among those who say they are most likely to vote, the Labour lead is cut to just three points. After second preferences, Mr Livingstone is just two points ahead on 51%…
What Tony Blair has done to try to fix tomorrow Whatever your personal politics you have to admire the amazing political skills of Tony Blair. Just look at what he’s done to deal with the projected disaster that for at least two years people were predicting for him in the 2004 Euro Election. Will this pay off? We’ve not long to wait to find out and start working out the impact on the General Election, General Election date, Labour Leadership…
Have any Politicalbetting.com users any idea why the price on Steve Norris has collapsed during the day. It was upto 17.5 at one stage and then went to below 9. Meanwhile the Ken Livingstone and Simon Hughes prices have risen sharply. At 1815 Ken was up to 1.1 – or double what was available just two days ago. Hughes was at 32 and Norris at 9.8 – a drop of nearly half on the day. We were expecting the final…
A report in the Evening Standard says that Labour’s internal polling is showing that this could be very tight on Thurday because the right wing vote is much more motivated to go to the polls than the rest. The report states:- The Evening Standard has learned that Labour’s own internal polling shows that a low turnout would mean a “very tight” fight with Mr Norris. The research reveals that Right-wing voters are much more fired up to use their ballot,…
Which pollster has got it right? Although political gamblers have been denied any markets on the Euro Elections UK – there’s one group of organisations that have an enoromous amount riding on the results of Thursday election – the pollsters. For polticians who’ve been attacking their methods, for punters who rely on on them for data on how a campaign is going and the public will be able to test their performances against real results. In particular the extraordinary figures…
Olympic City – 2012. Now it’s down to five leading cities a healthy betting market has developed. But before you bet on the Ken Livingstone-supported London bid check out other international markets. For there is much less enthusiasm about the bid outside the UK as there is in London itself. For if punters wanting to back London the last place they should put their bets is with a UK bookmaker. The best price here is 3/1 where London is second…