Big boost for the Lib Dems

Populus, the only pollster which recorded solid Labour leads since June, has continued to report a Labour margin in its latest survey for the Times. The figures are with changes on a month ago – CON 36%(-2): LAB 37%(-3): LD 16%(+4)

This will bring a lot of comfort to the Brown camp after the polls from ICM, ComRes and Ipsos-MORI had Tory leads of 5-7%.

Of all the phone pollsters using past vote weighting the Populus formula is more favourable to Labour though the differences compared with last week’s ComRes and ICM surveys cannot just be explained by methodology.

For the Lib Dems there will be huge relief that the miserable ratings they were getting after Brown’s election retreat have not been maintained.

The interesting feature is that the Lib Dem surge appears to have come from both the Tories and Labour.

The key thing is whether Populus is just a one off or whether the other firms follow suit.

Mike Smithson