Scottish Election polls	Date	LAB %	SNP %	CON %	LD %	GRN %
Constituency
TNS-BMRB/STV	27/03/11	38	37	14	7
YouGov	18/03/11	41	38	10	6
ICM	14/03/11	39	35	13	10
Regional
TNS-BMRB/STV	27/03/11	35	35	14	8	5
YouGov	18/03/11	39	32	11	6	5
ICM	14/03/11	37	34	13	9	4

Could the SNP hang on to power in Scotland?

There’s a new TNS/BMRB poll out tonight on the May 5th Scottish Parliament elections that suggests this is going to be a lot tighter than it first appeared. As can be seen Labour are just one point ahead in the constituency section but are level-pegging in the regional vote.

This starts to make some of the bookie prices against the SNP securing most seats a lot more interesting. Ladbrokes currently have 11/4 while William Hill, Victor Chandler and Paddy Power are at 7/2.

My guess is that these prices will tighten quite sharply. I’ve just put a three figure bet on with Ladbrokes – the only traditional bookie that lets me place reasonable sized bets.

Later tonight there are two national voting intention polls and one from YouGov on the English local elections. This post will be updated.

UPDATE: Labour back in the 40s with ComRes phone poll

Poll/publication	Date	CON %	LAB %	LD %	OTH
ComRes/Independent (Phone)	27/03/11	35	41	13	11
ComRes/Independent (Phone)	27/02/11	35	39	12	14
ComRes/Independent (phone)	30/01/11	34	43	10	13
ComRes/Independent (phone)	09/01/11	34	42	12	12
ComRes/Independent (Phone)	29/11/10	36	40	12	12

Note ComRes phone polls operate with a totally different methodology than their online surveys which is why I record them separately.

There’s also some findings on Libya using ComRes’s “Agree-Disagree” format. Like on the budget reaction this is producing different findings from those pollsters that have differently phrased questions. I’ll look at this in a future post.

Mike Smithson