Should Sarky backers worry about polling creep?

Taking the polls as a whole it’s clear that there has been a slight erosion in Nicholas Sarkozy’s lead since his triumph in the first round of voting last Sunday. This has been reflected in the betting in the UK.

In the immediate aftermath of Sunday’s voting Ségolène Royal moved out to about 3.7/1. That’s been edging back gently and is now at 3.1/1.

If the daily poll from Ipsos – the pollster that runs the Mori organisation in the UK – moves to 52% or 51% to Sarkozy then the final few days could create a lot of jitters in both camps.

A complicated story is developing over a planned presidential TV debate which has now been cancelled. The event was being seen as something that could benefit Royal but now Sarkozy is being accused of sabotaging it.

This is dangerous territory both candidates and who wins the spin war could benefit.

How do you rate the chances of a Sarkozy victory?
	81% – 100% likely
	66% – 80% likely
	51% – 65% likely
	0% – 50% likely

Mike Smithson