CON 42% (+2) LAB 25% (+1) LD 18% (+1)

YouGov have Tories over 40%, ComRes say not quite

ITN have announced a new YouGov poll which has the Conservatives increasing their lead over Labour to 17 points, but all major parties gaining slightly at the expense of ‘Others’. This implies that the mistrust of the major parties over expenses at the time of the European elections has largely died away, which won’t be good news for the Greens in Norwich North.

The ITN story (see link) claims this is the largest Tory lead with YouGov since September 2008, but checking UK Polling Report, this is incorrect: YouGov gave the Conservatives a lead of 17% on 29th May 2009.

Hat-tip to “Me” for highlighting this YouGov poll.

UPDATE: ComRes in the Independent on Sunday now released

CON 38% (+2) LAB 23% (-2) LD 22% (+3)

ComRes don’t quite have the Conservatives breaching the apparently all-important 40% mark, but they do have the LibDems within a point of Labour, which is significant. “Others” fell by 4 points to 16% confirming the trend in the YouGov poll. Non-voting questions indicate roughly a 2-1 preference for pulling out of Afghanistan and not committing extra troops and resources. That surprises me, given recently polls have suggested a fairly even split.

Morus