Yesterday saw a YouGov poll published a Wales only poll which is utterly staggering, we should be prepared for the possibility of one of the Conservatives or Labour could finish fifth or lower in next year’s Senedd election, it would make a mockery of Kemi Badenoch’s improved ratings.

Given Labour’s historic strength in Wales I am not sure there are the words to describe if that result became a reality.

There’s very few betting markets on next year’s Senedd elections and there’s no value in those, hopefully we will see some more, the Caerphilly by-election raised some interesting trends (particularly on turn out), these elections will show if that was an outlier or a harbinger.

TSE