Today sees the Caerphilly by-election and these are the latest odds from Ladbrokes and I think the value might be on backing Reform to poll 45% to 50% at 4/1.

Last week’s Survation had them polling at 42% so a bit of sampling variation plus tactical voting from the Tories might push Reform into the 45% to 50% bracket.

Whilst writing this piece I’ve also convinced myself the 50% might be worth a smaller stake too.

TSE