New Scottish Parliament poll, More in Common ?? Aug/Sep (vs 2021 Election (first MIC Holyrood)):List:SNP ~ 32% (-8)Lab ~ 16% (-2)RUK ~ 16% (+16)LD ~ 14% (+9)Con ~ 12% (-11)Grn ~ 8% (nc)Constituency:SNP ~ 37% (-11)Lab ~ 17% (-5)RUK ~ 16% (+16)LD ~ 12% (+5)Con ~ 12% (-10)Grn ~ 5% (+4)

— Ballot Box Scotland (@ballotbox.scot) 2025-09-04T12:36:59.836Z

Projecting More in Common ?? Aug/Sep into seats (changes vs 2021 on new boundaries):SNP ~ 63 (nc)Lab ~ 17 (-4)Reform UK ~ 17 (+17)Lib Dem ~ 15 (+11)Con ~ 11 (-20)Green ~ 6 (-4)(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)

— Ballot Box Scotland (@ballotbox.scot) 2025-09-04T12:36:59.837Z

In the excitement about Angela Rayner’s tax minimisation strategies there was a More in Common poll about next year’s Holyrood elections and John Swinney’s strategy might be working. Although I wouldn’t Relax when seeing this poll because No still leads Yes in this poll 52% to 48%.

A few weeks ago I tipped backing the SNP to win the most seats at 1/6 which is now 1/12 which I don’t think represents value now.

Ladbrokes are offering a second place market now and I think the value might be 25/1 to win the second most seats. I expect to file this bet in my collection of excellent value losers but at 25/1 I think PBers should be tempted given how close this More in Common polls has it for second place.

It’ll be interesting what happens when two right wing tribes go to war in an election.

TSE