Just three and a half more years of President Trump! (Assuming the 22nd Amendment can’t be undone by Executive Order, of course. I mean, perhaps they meant consecutive terms, and just forgot to put the word in there. The master of originalism (when it’s convenient) – Clarence Thomas – might certainly go for that.

Anyway. The midterms approach. In just a year and a bit. And midterms are usually a referendum on the incumbent. 

So,  how’s President Trump doing?

In a word, badly. 

Trump’s approval ratings – which took a dive when tariffs were first announced – and which had rebounded again, are now back looking quite miserable. Still, -10% is not insurmountable, it it?

Let’s dig in.

Below are the strong approve, disapprove numbers, albeit only going back to the inauguration. And these are the numbers that should really terrify the Trump team:

So… Strong Disapprove rapidly headed up to 43% or so and has stayed there. The one that’s been in freefall is Strong Approve – down to just 26%. 

I’m a little surprised by this. I would have expected to see that people who’d voted for him for fear of something worse dropping away, but the MAGA faithful to have kept the faith. Perhaps the “Epstein files” are eating away at his base? 

Now, who knows how the numbers will move in the next year, but my gut is that as midterms are (relatively) low turnout elections, you need as high a “Strong” number as possible to motivate your voters. When there are 64% more Strong Disapproves out there than Strong Approves, then I think you’re looking at an ugly scenario.

On PredictIt, the Democrats are showing as a 61% chance of gaining the House next year. Now, the Democrats are also unpopular. But that seems far too low a probability given that the House usually flips the first election into a cycle.

The Senate, of course, is a much tougher ask for the Democrats. 

PredictIt has that as a 75% chance of it staying Republican. That sounds perfectly reasonable. Indeed, given the market notes that the VP’s casting vote matters to control, that may even offer modest value. 

Still – should you be a PredictIt member in good standing, it’s the House of Representatives bet that I’d take.   

Robert