There are some hypothetical VI polls with a new Corbyn party doing the rounds. Take them with a pinch of salt. It's a very natural thing to ask, but it's very difficult to do (and these things – voting intention polls asking about hypothetical new parties – have a *terrible* track record).

— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells.bsky.social) 2025-07-15T10:18:01.735Z

The main barriers for a new political party are for people to notice you and to take you seriously as a contender. If you ask a polling question with text at the top highlighting the new party & asking about them on an equal footing with the other parties, you've eliminated the main barriers.

— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells.bsky.social) 2025-07-15T10:19:13.755Z

There's a long history of these. Here's MORI in 1999 asking about a hypothetical Pro-European Conservative party standing in the European elections www.ipsos.com/en-uk/europe…. 14% said they'd vote for them (they did stand, and actually won 1.3%)

— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells.bsky.social) 2025-07-15T10:19:36.617Z

In 2012 when the NHS Action Party launched Lord Ashcroft asked how people would vote if they stood. They got 18%. In reality, they stood in 12 seats and got an average of 3%lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/u…

— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells.bsky.social) 2025-07-15T10:19:53.881Z

In 2017 a chap called Chris Coughlan commissioned Survation to ask how people in Battersea would vote if there was an Independent Stop Brexit candidate standing. survation.com/wp-content/u…. It suggested they'd get 17%. Mr Coughlan did stand, as that, and got 2%

— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells.bsky.social) 2025-07-15T10:20:26.995Z

When Change UK first launched (when they were still the Independent Group for Change) a hypothetical YouGov poll found them at 18% yougov.co.uk/politics/art…. This did not, it is fair to say, come to pass.

— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells.bsky.social) 2025-07-15T10:20:51.691Z

There is still something to be gained from asking about new parties – hence the stuff we did last week looked at where they'd take support from, but didn't try too hard to put a number on how much support they would get. yougov.co.uk/politics/art…

— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells.bsky.social) 2025-07-15T10:21:42.315Z

For what it's worth 18% said they would "consider" them (though considering is a pretty low bar) and of those about a third said they were more likely to consider it than other parties. How many actually would? Who knows.

— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells.bsky.social) 2025-07-15T10:22:16.915Z

That's not to say a new Corbyn vehicle wouldn't do well. He is a known figure with an established support base on the left of the Labour party with an unpopular govt. There is a lot of potential there. It's just hypothetical voting intention polls aren't a very good way of quantifying that support.

— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells.bsky.social) 2025-07-15T10:22:52.452Z