Incumbency bias

Incumbency bias

Keir Starmer leads Nigel Farage by 15pts on who Britons think would be the best PMStarmer (44%) vs Farage (29%)Starmer (36%) vs Badenoch (25%)Starmer (27%) vs Davey (25%)Davey (41%) vs Farage (27%)Davey (33%) vs Badenoch (21%)Badenoch (29%) vs Farage (25%)yougov.co.uk/politics/art…

YouGov (@yougov.co.uk) 2025-05-27T09:45:50.363Z

Here's how our 'best prime minister' questions break down by current voting intentionyougov.co.uk/politics/art…

YouGov (@yougov.co.uk) 2025-05-27T09:45:50.364Z

2024 Tory voters are closely divided on whether they would prefer Nigel Farage or Kemi Badenoch as prime ministerKemi Badenoch: 38%Nigel Farage: 33%yougov.co.uk/politics/art…

YouGov (@yougov.co.uk) 2025-05-27T09:45:50.365Z

Keir Starmer faces a dilemma – while he will want to blunt Reform UK's momentum, he polls more favourably when voters see the choice as between himself and Farage rather than Badenochyougov.co.uk/politics/art…

YouGov (@yougov.co.uk) 2025-05-27T09:45:50.366Z

As a general rule I am not a fan of best Prime Minister polling because there is a strong incumbency bias, Jim Callaghan led Margaret Thatcher on this metric on election day in 1979.

This type of polling is only useful when the an opposition leader takes consistent leads in this poll as it usually presages a change of government however there is something very interesting which will make grim reading for Kemi Badenoch, she is barely beating Nigel Farage amongst 2024 Tory voters, which indicates it will be a real challenge to hold onto to the 2024 Tory vote, which already had hit a new low for the Tories.

TSE

Comments are closed.