Picture: Recent vandalism carried out at Donald Trump’s golf course in Scotland.

There has been a lot of wishful thinking when it comes to Scottish independence on both sides such as devolution killing Scottish nationalism stone dead or Sir Keir Starmer becoming Malleus ScotNatorum at the 2024 general election.

On the other side of the argument, inter alia, Brexit/Boris Johnson as PM/the pandemic/certain Supreme Court rulings would inexorably lead to Scottish independence and perhaps my headline will join that ignominious list but here’s my thinking.

The main thrust of this piece is that Donald Trump’s second term has reduced the likelihood of a second referendum being held in the near future even if the SNP/pro independence movement win/win a majority at Holyrood next year or at the next Westminster election.

The Ayrshire hotelier’s actions such putting tariffs on allies, threatening allies with invasion, upending the European security alliance.

Arguing for another Scottish referendum with that going on in the background would be like arguing for a referendum on electoral reform should be held whilst the Battle of Britain was taking place in 1940.

As far as I can see there are no betting markets on the year of another independence referendum but if there I would be likely laying any referendum this side of 2030, if not later.

My opinion hasn’t changed, Scottish independence will not win any future referendum until they have credible answers on the economic/fiscal questions about an independent Scotland such as who will be the lender of last resort and what currency they would use, but defence and foreign affairs would also add a dynamic that didn’t exist in the pre Trump world of 2014.

TSE