?Trying to predict the next General Election is a fools game – in the last Parliament the Tories ranged as high as 55% as low as 18%, with the electorate so volatile and the parties so split it's not impossible to imagine any of Starmer, Badenoch or Farage as PM come 2029.
Reform have momentum, but we don't know if they have a ceiling. With the exception of one pollster which has a tendency for higher Reform shares (including vs the GE) Reform haven't opened up a lead – that may change, but an open question if they can consistently poll above 25
If I were Farage this graph would worry me the most. That might sound odd, he's the top choice for preferred PM? But given Farage is supposed to be tapping into people's dissatisfaction with existing choices, you'd expect him to be doing much better vs none of the above.
Another challenge for Reform. As we saw from the Tories in 2024, not being liked is only part of problem, if you're actively disliked it's even worse, as voters will find a way to defeat you. If Reform can't find a way to be less FPTP can really limit their gains.
Reform are an overwhelmingly leave party. So were the Tories in 2019 – but Reform are both capturing less of the leave vote than the Tories had and less of remain vote. They need to cannibalise more of remaining Tory leave share and gain some remainers/new voters.
What does Reform do on wider economic questions is also key. It seems to me the most obvious vote maximising position for them is authoritarian left. Socially conservative, but interventionist on the economy – but that flies in the face of the libertarianism among some in Reform
But the questions about next election aren't just about Reform? What if national mood recovers, or there's progress on immigration and NHS, does that boost Labour a lot? Does it boost the whole 'establishment' including Tories and hurt insurgent parties
What about the Lib Dems, after election was clear that it would be hard for the Tories to ever form a majority without taking some of those 72 Lib Dem seats – same is true of any right wing majority. Increases chance even if Labour struggle next election is a Lib/Lab Coalition
Can the Tories find a way to repair the brand. It looks tricky, but Badenoch can get a hearing from voters if she can identify her answer to 'broken Britain' – during the leadership campaign people said they found her refreshing, so how can she out compete Farage for attention.
And then there's the dog which hasn't barked, the Greens? At moment Labour could repeat a very big majority because their isn't the same 'split on the left'. If the Greens do find a way to capitalise on left wing discontent it would change things up (look to locals for evidence)
Anyway lots of things that could happen. FWIW my advice to Reform (as a pollster!) would be don't become poll pilled. Polls are useful but they also have lots of froth and right now a huge range of outcomes seem possible.
That doesn’t mean ignore polls at this stage – polls are useful in knowing what public think, when there is need to course correct or refocus (for those who criticise polls the alternative is equivalent to sticking your fingers in your ears to public opinion singing lalala).
There are many reasons for not confidently predicting the outcome of the next election right now, I have mentioned them a few times on this website.
For example there’s an awful long time to the next election, which could be nearly four and a half years away so a lot can change, first past the post can be cruel mistress and we could see utter anarchy with the results if three or four parties are polling in the early twenties/within a few points of each other.
One thing that I hadn’t appreciated and has been highlighted in Luke Tryl’s third post is that none of the above is still winning the best Prime Minister polling.
If Farage was capturing the zeitgeist in a way that Labour achieved in the early part of the twentieth century when the eclipsed the Liberals then I would expect this polling to show Farage beating everyone including none of the above, this is a poll finding I will focus on a lot more now.