It's the Reform split that really needs to be thought about. These aren't Tories on holiday. The majority want to destroy the Conservative party.

— Alastair Meeks (@alastairmeeks.bsky.social) 2025-01-28T10:31:35.048Z

Unlike some I am not predicting the outcome of the next election at this time. The only prediction I am confident in making is those people who think adding the Tory and Reform vote shares together will be the vote share an alliance between the two would receive at the next election are going to be proven epically wrong, like Sion Simon in the autumn of 2007.

As we can see from the YouGov poll there’s significant opposition to a merger on both sides, which is higher on the Reform side. Assuming Reform voters are just Tories on holiday is a mistake.

Another often unspoken element of any Tory/Reform alliance talk is that were it to happen then surely the centre-left would also come to an understanding which would also negate plenty if not al of the benefits of a merger between the Tories and Reform.

TSE