The by-election nobody wants?
If we do end up with a by-election in this seat following Mike Amesbury’s guilty plea I would expect a Labour hold but on a very low turnout then it is possible we get a surprise but a potential by election could cause problems for Labour, the Tories, and Reform.
If the Tories finish a fair distance behind Reform that puts pressure on Kemi Badenoch’s leadership because she cannot stop the leakage to Reform. I do think the the Tories are facing an existential crisis where they are overtaken in votes by Reform and in seats by the Lib Dems.
This by-election also presents problems for Nigel Farage reform given they have their own MP who has been previously jailed for repeatedly kicking a then girlfriend. In these circumstances it might bring a further focus on James McMurdock to stand down or Farage to kick him out out Reform. Losing 20% of your parliamentary party would be sub-optimal.
In discussions with a former political strategist their view was that the worst thing that could happen for Labour was for Labour to win the by-election thanks to a divide between the Tories and Reform which will lead to some problems for Starmer as the initial polls after the alliance would see Labour a distant second in the polls*.
I hope Mike Amesbury does the honourable thing and resigns so we can have a by-election to bet on.
TSE
*(FWIW my view is that simply adding the Tory and Reform vote shares together is the height of stupidity, I remember when people used to add the Labour and Lib Dem vote shares together to hope of a progressive alliance to keep the Tories out in perpetuity. There’s also the potential for a centre-left alliance forming to keep the Reform and Tory alliance out.)