This has not been, for me, an enjoyable process: the polls and predictions have tilted more and more towards Trump with each week passing, and there is even more red on the charts this week. Apart from the Cook Political Report, who have not updated their Electoral College ratings for TWO MONTHS, everyone is predicting a Trump win, and the Senate leans very Republican too.

It’s hard to see why. We’ve had numerous Trump events where he has looked – shall we say, unpresidential? – for all sorts of reasons, and he’s been campaigning in all the wrong places, whereas Harris, unlike HRC in 2016, has been working the right places hard. Harris has consistently had a huge lead in fundraising, volunteer support, and favorability and enthusiasm, ever since becoming the candidate, which should point towards a big advantage for her. And yet he keeps advancing.

It’s fair to say though, that in most of the swing states, Trump’s margins are tiny (and when Harris led, her margins were tiny too). So it wouldn’t take much of a polling miss – well within margins of error – for one or other to get a significant win in the electoral college next week.

Despite being on Team Harris, I’m not someone who thinks she should be winning because she’s a good person and Trump isn’t. People vote for the candidate they want, not the candidate I want.
But what continues to puzzle me is the discrepancy between the presidential polling and the next level down: in four swing states where Trump is winning, the Democrats are leading the senate polling (in AZ, NV and PA) and the governor polling (in NC) by significant margins. If Harris actually won those four, it would be game over for Trump.

At least it won’t be long until we find out.

James Doyle