I could almost have sympathy for Rachel Reeves. The much hyped October budget approaches and whatever she does she will have the sound of wailing and the gnashing of teeth. It has been her misfortune to hang her hat on the OBR and thereby leave a vacuum on what she will do.

Politics like nature hates a vacuum and in the self imposed silence all manner of conjecture has been given ample room to feed rumours and speculate on Armageddon.  That her boss is hardly a ray of sunshine simply  feeds the doom and gloom. So much for Securonomics.

Labour have got themselves into something of a bind with the budget. If it is as hard as the pessimists say they will be on for something of a kicking with the electorate. The hardball Labourites will be all for saying it gets all the bad news out of the way early. But its hard not to think they will drop off significant support which wont come back. Or just as bad all those Tories who sat at home will feel motivated to come back to the fold next time round.

If on the other hand Reeves budget is nowhere near as punishing as it is advertised, you can see a wave of criticism from frightened voters, from missed business opportunities and general talking down that magic ingredient “confidence”. There is a body of evidence that the gloom has been overdone and is hurting the real economy.  Why create problems which don’t exist ?

There is a chance to right the ship by using the budget to explain what this government is about. Announcements so far have been disjointed, at times contradictory and poor at explaining what Labour intends to do. The budget gives a chance of a restart by explaining where the country is going, what are our infrastructure priorities, how the public finances are to be managed, where reform of the state will be targeted.

There is some heavy lifting to be done and Reeves is in the unenviable position of having to pull rabbits from a hat. If she can raise revenues without the pain she will be a hero, if she inflicts pain on the masses she may be joining Sue Gray after Starmer has one of his ruthless spells. All things told I could almost feel sorry for her. Almost.

Alan Brooke