Chart from Betdata.io of the next Tory leadership market over the last ten days

A few years ago I met somebody from the world of politics and the discussion turned to political betting. They said that people in the Westminster village followed PB and the political betting markets as there was a belief the smart money was always right given the amounts traded. It was no surprise to me that so many people were implicated in the political betting scandal in this year’s election.

My view was that the markets are frequently wrong, last week we saw it with the Tory leadership market where Badenoch, Jenrick, and Cleverly were up and down like a out of control rollercoaster. Shortly before the result of the final round of voting Jenrick’s chances of winning this contest was as low as 7.8% and Badenoch hit as low as 11.8% last week.

Below are some other markets where the market performed reverse ferrets so spectacular but there are so many to choose from.

This is something the editor of political betting shouldn’t be saying out loud, but often on the big markets, the smart money isn’t so smart and frequently wrong, the trick is recognise when an inflexion point will happen and be ready for that.

The 2017 general election market, where up to the release of the exit poll a Tory majority was seen as nailed on.

The 2016 presidential election was similar to the 2017 general election market

The Brexit referendum saw Leave become a 10% chance about 30 minutes after the polls closed after Nigel Farage pretty much conceded defeat

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