Is Kemi-kaze Badenoch about to blow an 18% lead?
YouGov have accurately predicted the winner of every Tory leadership election this century when it has gone to Tory members so I place great faith in their figures. Sky News report that
Robert Jenrick is within touching distance of Kemi Badenoch after a surge in his support, according to an exclusive Sky News poll of Tory members.
The latest YouGov survey of Conservative members for Sky News suggests there is a path to victory for all four candidates, although Tom Tugendhat faces a bigger hurdle than the rest.
The main shift in six weeks has been Ms Badenoch losing her commanding lead over Mr Jenrick among Tory members, according to the first poll of the people who will decide the next Tory leader since the field was reduced to four candidates.
Tory members opted for Ms Badenoch by 59% to Mr Jenrick’s 41% six weeks ago – an 18-point lead – if the pair were head to head in the final round.
Now they would choose Ms Badenoch by 52% to Mr Jenrick’s 48%, only a four-point lead, according to the new Sky News poll of 802 Tory members conducted over nine days to Sunday night.
The overwhelmingly majority of the fieldwork was conducted before Badenoch’s Kemi-kaze performance on maternity pay. I am not surprised that the more people see of Badenoch the less popular she becomes whilst the more people see of Cambridge educated lawyer Jenrick the popular he becomes with Tory members. I feel content with my betting strategy when I laid Badenoch heavily when she became the favourite. I still think there is a strong possibility she doesn’t make the final two. Tory MPs will feel even more confident in not sending her to the final two if she continues shed support with Tory members.
The latest betting odds
