Grifters gonna grift
Politico are reporting that
Republicans are racing to plug a massive money hole — before it’s too late.
The leader of House Republicans’ biggest super PAC told donors last month he needed $35 million more to compete with Democrats in the fall. Senate GOP campaign chair Steve Daines used his primetime speaking slot at the Republican convention to lament that massive spending from Democrats was keeping him awake at night. And his House GOP counterpart warned that their party’s challengers trailed Democratic incumbents by a collective $37 million at the end of June.
Republicans were already worried about a glaring financial gap even before Kamala Harris’ rise. Now, with the election just two months away, they found themselves in an even more dire position: Democrats have seen a flood of enthusiasm in recent weeks, they’re far outspending Republicans on air and their donors are more energized than ever — with campaign finance data showing a surge in grassroots fundraising in late July after President Joe Biden dropped out.
Panic is starting to set in.
“The only thing preventing us from having a great night in November is the massive financial disparity our party currently faces,” said Jason Thielman, the executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “We are on a trajectory to win the majority, but unless something changes drastically in the next six weeks, we will lose winnable seats.”
In some ways it’s a familiar place for the party, which has found itself facing a version of this quandary every two years since former President Donald Trump turbocharged Democrats’ small-dollar fundraising. And Republicans are sounding the alarm now because they believe there is still time to fix it.
They know they won’t be able to match Democrats dollar-for-dollar, but they need to narrow the deficit to stay in the game.
But Democrats are reaching new heights, pounding the airwaves with multimillion-dollar ad blitzes while their GOP opponents are still scrambling for funds. In some key Senate battlegrounds, Democrats are so flush with cash that they are outspending Republicans by tens of millions on the air. That’s forced the GOP to lean heavily on super PACs, which can raise unlimited amounts of money but must pay higher rates for the same ad slots.
Time’s running out: The next few weeks of fundraising will determine whether Senate Republicans can seriously contest Democratic-held seats in places beyond the red states of Montana and Ohio — and just how much House Republicans can go on offense while still protecting the slew of incumbents they have in blue districts. They need the funds as soon as possible to communicate during early voting and make sure Democrats aren’t totally unchallenged on the air in the final weeks.
I plan to cover in detail the betting markets on the House, the Senate, individual Senate races on the next few weeks but right now if you think the money is going to have an impact you might consider laying the GOP for control of the Senate because the way the terms of Betfair market and how they treat independents who caucus with the Dems makes a Dem majority unlikely. Also there’s no automaticity that money guarantees victory.
TSE