I still think Kemi Badenoch is the one to lay in this market it is quite interesting that the market has switched sharply since yesterday in the aftermath of Robert Jenrick’s comments about Allahu Akbar, even though his context made the comments less inflammatory and less stupid than originally implied.

Whilst both Jenrick and Badenoch do well with Tory members it is Tory MPs who shortlist the final two, I can see a pathway that sees Tom Tugendhat and James Cleverly being the final two but I am not advising laying Jenrick right now.

TSE