Are we set for the greatest polling failure in history? Sunak thinks so
The Times and Telegraph report that
Rishi Sunak is relying on winning back about 180,000 Reform UK supporters in key seats, as he urges them to help him stop a Labour “supermajority”.
The prime minister is urging disaffected former Conservatives to “lend” him their vote to stop an “unchecked” Labour government as he spends the final days of the campaign attempting to win wavering voters back from Reform.
Tory campaign chiefs believe that, among an electorate of 48 million, the final result could come down to the decisions of a few hundred thousand right-wing voters in swing seats who are leaning towards backing Nigel Farage’s party. Sunak is making an aggressive attempt to win them back with warnings that Labour will be a “soft touch” on immigration.
Sunak will seize on analysis by The Times suggesting that just 130,000 voters in 100 seats could decide the result of the election, making the difference between a 200-seat Labour majority and a hung parliament.
The analysis from YouGov is from last month but if accurate could be decisive. We have seen some recovery in some standard voting intention polls for the Tories were they avoid an extinction level event but have a more 1997 style result but a hung parliament?
I struggle to see it but this does show the inequities of first past the post that just a handful of the electorate can have such an impact.
You can get 30s on a hung parliament on Betfair.
TSE