* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *

* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *https://t.co/88nckGwh75

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) June 20, 2024

— reallocation of resources 2 weeks before polling day suggests the Tories are making a major strategic shift to defend ultra-safe seats

— *Sunak’s seat will likely get extra resources after signs it’s in danger*

— same for other Cabinet mins at riskhttps://t.co/88nckGwh75

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) June 20, 2024

There’s already evidence of this in play – how else to explain Rishi Sunak’s visit to West Devon this week where Geoffrey Coz got 60% of the vote last time? https://t.co/JjfjDZgfNY

— Jason Groves (@JasonGroves1) June 20, 2024

?Fascinating @alexwickham story

I also understand there are some candidates (not incumbents) who in some marginal (not wafer thin – but 5/6k majorities) – who have been told they are going to be redeployed (but not where.)

Election targets changing… ? https://t.co/HvTDSKNUX1

— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) June 20, 2024

The Tories are losing the next election that is as certain as water being wet or the SNP arguing any day that ends with a ‘y’ is a mandate for Scottish independence but what remains uncertain (and makes this election so exciting) is the scale of the Tory defeat with anything from a 1997 style result to a 1931 in reverse result.

Based on the Tweets atop this thread are in for a pounding of which there is no suitable analogy for the scale of the potential defeat which is why the Tories are planning a rearguard that they hope will match Rorke’s Drift and I know the instinct of most punters will be to get to the spreads or the seat bands betting market but I wonder if there might be some value in the Betfair market on In what position will the Conservative Party finish in terms of total seats won at the next UK general election?

There’s some MRPs showing the Tories barely finishing second ahead of the Lib Dems in terms of seats and there’s some standard voting intention polls showing the Tories doing much worse. We’re really only a few percentage points from the Tories finishing behind Reform and the SNP if the secessionists have a good night, so I wonder if the value is backing the Tories to finish in fourth and/or fifth place in terms of seats.

I don’t think Rishi Sunak has the skillset to fight a general election campaign which is impacting my thoughts.

TSE

PS – If you want to back the Tories winning the most seats in this market then please do not place your betson Betfair, post in the comments section here, there will be many people willing to take your money at much better odds and we can cut out the middle man.