What to do if and when crossover happens
Like CCHQ I wouldn’t be astonished to see Reform ahead of the Tories with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll in the next few days. If that happens I expect the betting markets to have a moment.
We’ve been here before, back in 2010 after the first debate the Lib Dems surged from third to first in the polls thanks to Nick Clegg’s performance. The market wildly overreacted which allowed for great profits such as the Lib Dems moved to 100 seats on the spreads and Lib Dems started talking about taking seats like Witney.
One thing that has been consistent under Nigel Farage associated parties is that they do terribly under first past the post elections so when crossover happens it is likely to expect Reform to have a poor election night in terms of seats, I can see them only winning Clacton and Rotherham (where the Tories have failed to put up a candidate.)
It looks like Reform are a sell with Sporting Index but the potential downside is much than the upside so I might stick to the seat bands/individual seat markets.
TSE