Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

CON 18 (=)
LAB 48 (+4)
LIB DEM 9 (-1)
REF UK 13 (-2)
GRN 7 (-1)

Fieldwork 7 – 8 May pic.twitter.com/CafOaINyco

— Lara Spirit (@lara_spirit) May 9, 2024

If a Prime Minister and his party is a long way behind in the polls they will try and give themselves enough time to turn it around.

I have repeatedly stated that any PM that held a general election campaign that straddled the Christmas and new year period would get gubbed in the polls however I am now leaning towards to a January election.

Sunak thinks he needs time to turn things around before he is indelibly regarded as worse than Liz Truss, Sunak will want to avoid earning that contumely moniker.

Another poll today has the Tories a mere 15% behind Labour but that still fits my thesis, Sunak will want as long as possible to turn things around. Prime Ministers in trouble turn into the lovechild of John Travolta and the Charles Dickins character Wilkins Micawber, they hope on stayin’ alive in the hope that something will turn up so end up delaying elections until the last possible moment.

You can get 17s on a January election, I think that is still rather good value.

TSE