Some Tories are anxious about "shy" switchers

Previous Conservative voters who on the doorstep say they'll vote for them again, but at the ballot box abandon them for Labour / the Lib Dems

Are they right to be worried? Is there something in it?https://t.co/itGhLMPwh6

— Adam Payne (@adampayne26) June 3, 2023

There is "social acceptability bias" which can lead voters to tell MPs and activists on their doorstep what they want to hear, says @ProfTimBale

He was echoed by @robfordmancs, who stresses it is not a new phenomenon and that anecdotes should be treated with caution

However…

— Adam Payne (@adampayne26) June 3, 2023

A bit of doorstep psychology for this weekend’s @politicshome Saturday read

Nothing to see bar age-old British aversion to awkwardness?

Or is it something else – and more sinister – from a Tory point of view? https://t.co/itGhLMPwh6

— Adam Payne (@adampayne26) June 3, 2023

The local results came as quite the shock to those at the top of the Tory party, the weekend before the locals the Tory expectations management was for around 600 seat loses which means they were really expecting losses of somewhere around 400 to 500 seat losses so they could spin the result as better than the expectations/polls. The result was much more horrific for Sunak’s party.

I’ll need some solid data rather than anecdata that shy switchers are actually happening, the locals in 2024 will give us some more data, but given the two out of the last three general elections the polling industry has had shockers so it isn’t impossible the polls are wrong at the next election either. They may well be misunderestimating the Labour lead/collapse in the Tory share. Bet accordingly.

TSE