EXCL: Keir Starmer is considering announcing that he would quit as Labour leader if found to have broken lockdown rules

w/@patrickkmaguire https://t.co/eMSDYaqXLb

— Henry Zeffman (@hzeffman) May 9, 2022

Crucially:
– Starmer remains adamant he did not break the rules, so thinks he won't be fined
– Few believe he could carry on if Durham finds against him. He's made integrity core to his leadership

No decision yet – and may be too risky – but Starmer may say something today

— Henry Zeffman (@hzeffman) May 9, 2022

Yesterday I speculated that Starmer would quit if he received a fixed penalty notice, I based this on the unmatched high levels of personal integrity that lawyers have, coupled with his high sense of ethics that DPPs need, and the fact of the criticisms Starmer has rightly launched at Boris Johnson for his repeated lockdown breaches.

Starmer is tune with the public as this YouGov poll shows, although Beergate appears not to have damaged Starmer’s rating at YouGov.

% who think Keir Starmer should resign if fined by police / Boris Johnson should resign for being fined by police

General public: 46% Starmer / 57% Johnson

Labour voters: 48% Starmer / 83% Johnson

Conservative voters: 40% Starmer / 29% Johnsonhttps://t.co/JNGLNJghoA https://t.co/1AqlMBhtiy

— YouGov (@YouGov) May 9, 2022

The cynic in me thinks that the clever lawyer* Starmer is putting pressure on Durham police not to fine him and that he feels confident he won’t receive a FPN. If Durham police are re-investigating old Covid breaches then Dom Cummings might finally be punished for his sojourns to Barnard Castle and other places in the North East.

Quite a few bets will be skewered if Starmer, I still maintain my position that if Starmer quits, the pressure on Johnson to also quit, the optics for him remaining whilst Starmer quit will be intolerable for the PM.

TSE

*Yes I know, clever lawyer is a horrible tautology.