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Month: December 2013

And now… our inaugural New Year’s Day Crossword

And now… our inaugural New Year’s Day Crossword

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pic.twitter.com/MuKOKDA0Cz — PolPics (@PolPics) January 1, 2014 It is with some considerable trepidation that I step into the estimable shoes of stjohn, who has provided us with splendid Christmas Day cruciverbalism for the last six years.  Fear not, stjohn is merely resting, and may well be setting more puzzles in future.  If this offering gets his famous “nod” then we may even collaborate on a jumbo sometime! Traditionally members have supplied the answers (and explanations of the wordplay) in the…

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What we know about the 2010 LD switchers to Labour – the voters who form Ed Miliband’s “firewall”

What we know about the 2010 LD switchers to Labour – the voters who form Ed Miliband’s “firewall”

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They are more enthusiastic about EdM than existing LAB voters On one of the threads yesterday there were a number of questions asking what is known about the group of voters who could put a CON majority beyond reach – 2010 LD voters who now say they will go Labour. The problem is that almost all the polling data we have doesn’t show this segment separately – so while it is possible to extrapolate we cannot get reliable numbers. The…

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Clegg’s big EE2014 gamble: pitching the LDs as the party of “in” and leading the fight against UKIP

Clegg’s big EE2014 gamble: pitching the LDs as the party of “in” and leading the fight against UKIP

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Telegraph's front page lead pic.twitter.com/Z6MyQmSecj — PolPics (@PolPics) December 31, 2013 Can the yellows retain their 4th place? The Telegraph is leading this morning on attacks by Nick Clegg and Treasury Secretary, Danny Alexander, on UKIP with them pitching the party as the only one which is enthusiastic about remaining in the EU. This is the first serious campaigning ahead of May’s elections which are now less than five months away. The Clegg argument is that a strong vote performance…

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Farage gives in to UKIP’s Facebook revolution over Syrian refugees and gives a Christmas gift to the Tories

Farage gives in to UKIP’s Facebook revolution over Syrian refugees and gives a Christmas gift to the Tories

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Now he only wants to help Christian Syrian refugees UKIP Leader @Nigel_Farage has today urged the Govt to take some responsibility in helping those Christians fleeing the civil war in Syria. — UKIP (@UKIP) December 30, 2013 Nigel Farage's position yesterday designed to defy critics who attack #UKIP as intolerant. His position today reinforces their argument. — Rob Ford (England) (@robfordmancs) December 30, 2013 So is a Muslim fleeing #Assad's murderous regime not as worthy as a Christian doing the…

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GE2015 – the scene is set for four way tactical voting

GE2015 – the scene is set for four way tactical voting

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Tactical voting posters pic.twitter.com/Pi7uDkosxk — PolPics (@PolPics) December 29, 2013 The campaigns will be about best way of keeping Miliband or the Tories out A key part of the Tory effort to remain at Number 10 will be to get over to CON-UKIP defectors that in the key LAB-CON battlegrounds the best way of stopping Ed Miliband becoming next PM is by them voting with the blues rather than the purples. In a select number of seats UKIP will try…

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It’s 2014 prediction time: Will it be another year when the Tories fail to secure a lead?

It’s 2014 prediction time: Will it be another year when the Tories fail to secure a lead?

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How many times will ICM, last to report CON ahead, have one in 2014? On how many occasions during 2014 will the Guardian’s monthly ICM phone poll report a CON lead 11-12 polls 9-10 polls 7-8 polls 5-6 polls 3-4 polls 1-2 polls NONE      This from March 2012 was last to have CON ahead Mike Smithson Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004 Follow @MSmithsonPB

New Ipsos-MORI poll finds 68pc ready to welcome migrants from Bulgaria and Romania

New Ipsos-MORI poll finds 68pc ready to welcome migrants from Bulgaria and Romania

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It is all about how the questions are put There’s a new Ipsos-MORI poll reported in the Observer that suggests that more than two thirds would be ready to welcome migrants from Bulgaria and Romania provided that they “learn English, get a job, pay taxes and become part of their local community.” The poll itself has been funded by the thinktank British Future and comes only three days before the changes relating to the two countries come into effect. Clearly…

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2013: The year when according to political punters, at least, nothing changed very much

2013: The year when according to political punters, at least, nothing changed very much

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December 2012 compared with December 2013 The chart says it all. There has been almost no change in prices on the Betfair exchange on the outcome of GE2015. The prices on a CON and LAB majority have edged down a bit with no overall majority moving up a notch. The big differences between now than then have been the resilience UKIP in the polls and the fact that the election is now little more than 16 months away. Labour’s polling…

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