With  less than 18 months to go until the general election, it is worth reviewing that markets that both William Hill and Ladbrokes have on Which party will receive the most votes in the next UK General Election? The Lib Dems or UKIP. The below table shows the vote shares for the Lib Dems and UKIP in the most recent polls by the various pollsters. Pollster Lib Dem % UKIP % Populus (online) 12 7 YouGov (online) 8 14 ComRes (phone)…
The SNP are making the same mistakes as Yes2AV One simple and obvious truth: in order to win a referendum, you need to win the support of more than half the people casting a vote. This may be elementary politics it was something that the proponents of AV nonetheless failed to grasp, or at least, failed to act on (somewhat ironically, given the nature of their cause). A second truth about referendums: those opposed to a proposition don’t have to…
The Ipsos-Mori issues index for November is out, the field work ended on the 10th of November. Ipsos-Mori Issues Index for Nov is out New PB Thread http://t.co/uJnRxdRYii pic.twitter.com/ovrJF46TKs — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) November 29, 2013 General concern about the economy continues to fall as concern shifts to poverty/inequality and the personal economy. Highest level of concern about low pay and poverty/inequality Ipsos MORI have ever recorded. Immigration is in second place, as it has been for the last five months, is race…
Will it be English Tories that swings the IndyRef for the Yes Side? New PB Thread http://t.co/8YtUktuchO pic.twitter.com/Z7Zjjxkoc7 — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) November 29, 2013 On the love that might finally dare to speak its name. For those of us betting and/or wanting Scotland to vote for independence, bar one poll that was commissioned by the SNP, the general thrust of the recent polling hasn’t been favourable for us, so where will this surge in support for the Yes Side come from? In…
HenryGManson asks Does the government care that household debt is soaring? New PB Thread http://t.co/8WK28EM4eL pic.twitter.com/j16apwPMPH — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) November 29, 2013 We often hear politicians refer to the national debt, at which point Fraser Nelson will republish his chart showing the latest figures the government owes and that either the Chancellor or Prime Minister is telling fibs. This week Nelson added ‘although I hate to say it, the Labour Party has a valid point to make. If you don’t adjust…
Winkfield and Cranbourne on Bracknell Forest (Con Defence) Result of last election (2011): Con 40, Lab 2 (Conservative overall majority of 38) Result of ward at last election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,308, 1,250 Green 269 Labour 255, 252 Candidates duly nominated: Paul Birchall (Lib Dem), Janet Keene (Lab), Ken La Garde (UKIP), Susie Phillips (Con) When people think of “one party states” in local elections, they often think of the Labour heartlands such as Knowsley (Lab 63,…
Now that he is free from being a Member of Parliament, and not constrained by having to toe the party line, Chris Huhne has been offering his thoughts on a variety of subjects. Yesterday Chris Huhne wrote a piece in Juncture magazine which discusses on the formation of the current coalition in 2010, and the possibility for a Labour/Lib Dem coalition in 2015. (You can read the piece here and here’s the Guardian write up of the Huhne piece.) He says on…
And next week GE2015 will be only 17 months away Perhaps the biggest question hanging over the GE2015 outcome is how big will UKIP’s share be on the day. Although the party is attracting support across the board the general view is that the Tories will be damaged the most. By the same argument the more the UKIP share slips back then the better it should be for the blue team The real answer is that we don’t know. The…