Browsed by
Month: September 2011

..and so into the weekend in the PB Nighthawks Cafe..

..and so into the weekend in the PB Nighthawks Cafe..

Comments 0 Comment

We are now two thirds the way through conference season – only the Tory one to go and then normal politics resumes. Before this conference season started I thought that the Lib Dem one would be the most interesting and the Labour one the least. How wrong I was. Last week in Birmingham it was a bit boring and the roastings that were predicted for Nick Clegg didn’t happen. Labour in Liverpool has been extraordinary with people continuing to talk…

Read More Read More

What’s Harriet done for future leadership contests?

What’s Harriet done for future leadership contests?

Comments 0 Comment

How will the 1+ woman rule work in practice? One of the more significant events to have taken place at Labour’s recent conference was its adoption of the Refounding Labour proposals. Amongst these were the scrapping of Shadow Cabinet elections and the introduction of a rule that at least one of Labour’s leader and deputy must be a woman, championed by its current deputy, Harriet Harman. I’ve not been able to find the precise wording of how this would actually…

Read More Read More

Could a fat man ever be elected President?

Could a fat man ever be elected President?

Comments 0 Comment

What are Christie’s chances if he decides to run? Over the past week or so the big buzz in the fight for the Republican nomination is whether Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey, will enter the race. Senior figures in the party have been pressing him to put his hat into the ring because they believe that a moderate conservative with a good record would have a better chance of beating Obama than the current front-runner, Mitt Romney, or last…

Read More Read More

Tonight in the PB Nighthawks Cafe…

Tonight in the PB Nighthawks Cafe…

Comments 0 Comment

I’ve had quite a busy day betting. My respect for HenryG is such that I thought it was worth wagering a fair bit on his core proposition that EdM is not going to survive and that Yvette Cooper is best placed to win a new leadership election. I got on her at 4/1 which seems like a good price. I also got more on at 11/4 that EdM will step down as leader before the general election. Tonight’s YouGov daily…

Read More Read More

Labour’s conference: The Henry G Manson verdict

Labour’s conference: The Henry G Manson verdict

Comments 0 Comment

His prediction: “what needs to be done will be done”. This was a bad Labour Party conference. It was confusing, contradictory, let the government off the hook and needlessly created an array of hostages to fortune. It all the feel of an emergency party conference arranged with a fortnight’s notice – not a platform planned carefully to showcase an alternative government and Prime Minister.  This week wasn’t just a car crash. It was a 30 car pile-up. I could write…

Read More Read More

Will October’s polling be crucial for EdM?

Will October’s polling be crucial for EdM?

Comments 0 Comment

Is the media narrative now about his leadership The chart contrasts the Labour lead in the overnight YouGov daily poll (6%) for the Sun and the deficit Ed Miliband has when the same sample was asked “who would be the best PM” (-14%). When the “best PM” question was asked just before the general election Gordon Brown trailed Cameron by just six points. The detail of the overnight polling shows that just 1% of LibDem voters named Ed as “best…

Read More Read More

It’s the PB Nighthawks Cafe again

It’s the PB Nighthawks Cafe again

Comments 0 Comment

Well a whole day and a bit has passed since Mr. Miliband made his Liverpool speech and it is still the big talking point. The latest YouGov daily poll, has Labour still with a six point lead over the Tories – 43 to 37 with the LDs on 9. A Sun Tweet had this:- This is hardly dramatic especially as the same poll also has Dave’s rating as “Best PM” down one point as well. Anyway as PB regulars know…

Read More Read More

Will the conference help Labour do better in the blame game?

Will the conference help Labour do better in the blame game?

Comments 0 Comment

YouGov Or is the party still going to be held responsible? Probably the biggest challenge facing the Two Eds is dealing with the perception set out in the polling featured above – who is responsible for the cuts? The good news is that compared with a year ago there’s been a drop from 44% to 40% in those blaming Labour. The coalition, meanwhile has seen its proportion up from 20% to 22%. The bad news for the red team is…

Read More Read More