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Month: July 2011

Will internet users be the least fertile group for Guido?

Will internet users be the least fertile group for Guido?

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Ipsos-MORI Why this divide on bringing capital punishment back? As most PBers probably know Guido has launched a campaign for the re-introduction of capital punishment which hasn’t been used as a penalty in the UK since the summer of 1964. I remember it well because at the time I was doing a vacation job at a printers next to Strangeways prison in Manchester and was one of the group waiting outside for the notice of the execution to be posted…

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Dave back with a clear lead in the leader ratings

Dave back with a clear lead in the leader ratings

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Is the hacking effect starting to recede? The latest YouGov party leadership ratings for News International are out and show the prime minister gaining some ground. As can be seen Dave is up a net five on last week with Ed down a net two and Clegg unchanged. Looking back over the past few weeks both Clegg and Miliband are still in much better positions than before the scandal erupted. Miliband is a net 17 points up while Clegg is…

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Punters give Boris a 70pc chance of being re-elected

Punters give Boris a 70pc chance of being re-elected

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Betfair Politics But shouldn’t Labour be capitalising more on their poll position? The next big scheduled UK election is that for London mayor next May. The main battle, like last time, will be between Ken and Boris with the former attempting to make it three wins out of four. As the chart of Betfair prices illustrates punter sentiment is strongly with the incumbent. In 2008 Ken ran Boris reasonably close at a time when his party, Labour, had slumped to…

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Is now the time to bet against Obama?

Is now the time to bet against Obama?

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Gallup Should he really be such a tight odds-on favourite? One statistic about US politics that has been bandied about quite a lot recently is that no US president since Franklin Roosevelt has been re-elected with the unemployment rate above 7.2%. The figure for this month is 9.2%. It will take some turnaround for the rate to get back down by November next year, particularly in light of the sluggish growth figures released there this week. As they say in…

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Is the 50p tax the next Coalition battleground?

Is the 50p tax the next Coalition battleground?

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Henry G Manson on a possible Blue-Yellow clash So far public tensions and skirmishes between the two Coalition parties have centred on social policy such as on the NHS or democratic reform such as AV and the House of Lords. The greatest unity appears has been on the government’s economic agenda despite significant pre-election differences between the parties. That could soon change. There has been a growing frequency number of nods and winks from the Treasury that George Osborne intends…

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Marf on “PB Armistice Night”

Marf on “PB Armistice Night”

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What happens when we are nice to our opponents PB regulars used to the hurly-burly of many of the site’s threads might have been shocked to read what happened overnight. After a heated and fractious discussion following the latest hacking story the former Labour MP and contributor here since 2004, Nick Palmer, suggested that we all look at our political opponents and try to write something positive. Extraordinarily people followed the suggestion and peace broke out. It was as though…

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What do tonight’s developments add to the story?

What do tonight’s developments add to the story?

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Obviously developments in the hacking story are making the running in the newsrooms tonight and no doubt it will feature prominently both on the front pages and at the top of TV news bulletin running orders. What I can’t work out is what this does to the hacking saga apart just reinforcing people’s views. Very little surprises us any more. @MikeSmithsonPB

What vote lead will LAB/CON need for a majority?

What vote lead will LAB/CON need for a majority?

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Will we start to get an idea in September? On September 12th or 13th the boundary commissioners for England will produce their first proposals on how the electoral map should be re-drawn for the 2015 general election. The Scottish proposals are due out in October and the Welsh ones now look set to be published at about the same time. These will be critical documents and will allow Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus, Anthony Wells of YouGov UKPollingReport and others…

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