YG daily poll – Sun Mar 31 Mar 30 CONSERVATIVES 38% 38% LABOUR 32% 31% LIB DEMS 19% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 4.5% 5%  Harris poll – Metro Mar 31 Mar 22 CONSERVATIVES 37% 35% LABOUR 27% 28% LIB DEMS 19% 17% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6.5% 5%  No clear winner in tonight’s polls Two polls are out tonight, the daily YouGov one for The Sun and one from Harris for Metro, report opposing movements…
Angus Reid for Politicalbetting Mar 31 Mar 17 CONSERVATIVES 39%37% 39% LABOUR 27%28% 26% LIB DEMS 23%22% 21% LAB to CON swing from 2005 –% 8% And others drop sharply as well With the election only days away from being called there’s a boost for the Lib Dems in the latest PB/Angus Reid poll. The entire field-work took place yesterday and today and so was completed after Monday’s Channel 4 “Ask the Chancellors” debate. A big feature in this latest…
The PB guide to fiddling simple on-line polls How to vote as often as you want This is not rocket-science and many PBers will know this already but I thought a guide to how to fix simple online polls might be timely. No doubt we’ll see a deluge of them in the next few weeks and the more people know how they can be fiddled the less notice that will be taken of them. It really is quite simple. The…
Could opinion harden against a hung parliament? Both the Guardian and Telegraph lead on a civil service plan that would have Mr. Brown remaining at Number 10 in the case of a hung parliament. As the Guardian puts it: “Under the proposals, which have been drawn up to prevent a constitutional crisis and a run on the pound, parliament may not reconvene for nearly three weeks to allow the prime minister to form a working government with the minority parties….
YG daily poll – Sun Mar 30 Mar 29 CONSERVATIVES 38% 39% LABOUR 31% 32% LIB DEMS 19% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 5% And the LDs gain just one So a bit of a disappointment for the Lib Dems after last night’s performance by Vincle Cable in the debates but at least they are moving up a notch. The Tory=Labour splt just the same so no notoiceable change following the big NIC announcement. There is a…
Can his intervention help Labour turn the tide? So he’s back nearly three years after he stepped aside to let Mr. Brown become leader and PM. What’s going to be the impact? Can Tony turn some of those Tory voters who went Labour in 1997 and have now moved away? Or has his influence on the UK scene declined the longer he has been away. There are also the controversial reports of his earning as an ex-PM. But Blair, whatever…
FLASHBACK to October 2006 John Rentoul writes a post on his blog about the recent Manchester academic conference when all those making predictions said it was going to be a hung parliament. This has prompted me to dig out this MORI poll of nearly 300 politics dons taken in October 2006 only nine months before Mr. Brown became prime minister. Remembering that this was October 2006, they were asked to give their forecast for the general election. Notice in particular…
And what are we to make of voodoo polls? Thanks to PB’s cartoonist Marf for her take on last night’s debate and her gentle reminder that the group that really matters are swing voters. So who won and what impact will it have? Beware of the voodoo polls – not only are the samples self-selecting but it’s very easy to multi-vote as I discovered last night after recording my preference in Channel 4’s quickie poll. A message then appeared that…