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Month: August 2004

Punters ignore Tory progress [normal site updates from September 8]

Punters ignore Tory progress [normal site updates from September 8]

It’s not been picked up by the pundits or the betting markets but ALL four of the main opinion polls have shown Tory gains in August. YouGov (Aug 27) 34%(+1) L34%(nc!) LD21% (-2%) ICM (Aug15) C33%(+3) L36%(+1) LD22%(-3) MORI (Aug 16) C32%(+1) L36%(+4) LD21%(-3) Populus (Aug 1) C32%(+3) L32%(-1) LD24% (nc) With the UKIP effect continuing to unwind there is the potenial for further improvements but all this is being ignored by the betting markets. Latest spread-betting prices. LAB 343-351…

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Labour favourite as Hartlepool market opens [normal site updates from September 8]

Labour favourite as Hartlepool market opens [normal site updates from September 8]

The betting exchange, Betfair, have now opened a market on the Hartlepool by-election. So far there are very few backers and layers but Labour is just favourite over the LDs. Labour are 1/2 while the LD current price is 2/3. This could change quickly. If I was sitting in front of my computer rather than composing this on my smartphone sitting on a French beach I would be trying to lay Labour at 1/2. There are only 2 parties in…

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YouGov has UKIP at 6%

YouGov has UKIP at 6%

Today’s YouGov poll has CON 34%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LD 21%(-2), Oth 11%(nc). UKIP is at 6% compared with 4% with MORI and 1% with ICM. They cannot all be right but a sixfold difference must be a record. .

Continuing the thread [next site update September 8]

Continuing the thread [next site update September 8]

MORI’s new poll has: CON 32%, LAB 36%, LD 21%. Labour are up 4%. the Tories are up 1%, as UKIP fall one point to 4. At this stage before the last election MORI was showing a 22% Labour lead with the LDs on 15%. Labour were on 51%. YouGov should be out tomorrow and UKIP’s rating will be interesting.! After 94 comments can the thread be continued here? Many thanks. Mike Smithson

Monday Call – August 23 2004 [next planned update Wednesday September 8]

Monday Call – August 23 2004 [next planned update Wednesday September 8]

My General Election Bets In this last article before my holiday I thought I would set out my personal General Election bets. These are mostly in line with the calls that we’ve made on the site. Some now look silly, some look really good value and some look over-priced – but they all seemed a good idea at the time of being made. They also reflect how attitudes to political outcomes have changed over the past year. Labour to win…

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Kerry’s poll ratings hold firm & it’s neck and neck in the betting

Kerry’s poll ratings hold firm & it’s neck and neck in the betting

The White House race gets dirtier and dirtier The Democratic ticket is holding firm in the polls with a clear lead in most of them after a sustained and well funded attack in an attempt to undermine John Kerry’s status as a Vietnam war hero. A big New York Times investigation has sought to establish the truth behind the “Swift Boat Vertans for Truth”, who has been funding the TV commercials and features some remarkable revelations. It states:- Records show…

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Polling those reluctant to admit their allegiance

Polling those reluctant to admit their allegiance

A poll for “shy Labour” as well as “shy Conservative” voters Every General Election gambler should hope that the Independent newspaper contracts again with the US polling organisation Rasmussen which at the 2001 General Election was the most consistent pollster and the only firm that got the Tory share right. The firm’s controversial methodology seeks to overcome the human interface issues of the conventional poll interviews without the limitations of internet surveys and could be ideal for identifying Labour supporters…

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Poll improvement for the Tories

Poll improvement for the Tories

Good value bets for Tory and Labour backers If today’s 3% ICM poll improvement for the Tories is followed by Mori, YouGov and Populus it might just affect the betting. In recent months ICM has usually been showing bigger leads for Labour than the other firms and this might be due to the weighting it attaches to those surveyed who are not certain to vote. In July all the other pollsters had the two main parties within one percent when…

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