The sow’s ear, Britain’s approach to Brexit negotiations

The sow’s ear, Britain’s approach to Brexit negotiations

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How should Britain approach the farewell negotiations with the rest of the EU? David Davis indirectly confirmed that the Government has yet to reach an agreed line when he told Hillary Benn in Parliament on 14 December that the Government’s plan would only be published when it was ready. On the one hand it is refreshing that the Government is no longer pretending that its silence is based on the principle that loose lips sink Brexits.  On the other, it…

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Opinium has the CON lead over LAB down by 5%

Opinium has the CON lead over LAB down by 5%

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Opinium has the LDs down to 6% & CON lead down 5 to 7% CON: 38% (-3)LAB: 31% (+2)UKIP: 13% (+1)LD: 6% (-1)GRN: 4% (-) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2016 Public approval ratings (Approve / Disapprove):May: 42 / 27Corbyn: 21 / 47Farron: 15 / 32Nuttall: 11 / 33Sturgeon: 26 / 38(Opinium) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) December 17, 2016 Throughout 2016 Opinium has had the LDs at 2½-3% below the average for other pollsters. This has become a "house…

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POLL ALERT: Polling Matters / Opinium: Voters back ‘soft Brexit’ but reject second referendum – even if the economy worsens

POLL ALERT: Polling Matters / Opinium: Voters back ‘soft Brexit’ but reject second referendum – even if the economy worsens

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Embed from Getty Images   The first poll commissioned by the ‘Polling Matters’ podcast, conducted by Opinium, shows little appetite for another referendum but we shouldn’t assume voters want a ‘hard Brexit’ either writes Keiran Pedley Since the EU referendum result was announced last June, many have sought to explain on behalf of voters why they voted the way they did and therefore surmise what they want from any Brexit deal. To try and understand what is really going on…

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Back Sadiq Khan as Next Labour Leader at 33/1

Back Sadiq Khan as Next Labour Leader at 33/1

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He is well positioned to win a 2020 contest Who would have thought a year ago that as 2016 draws to a close, both Nigel Farage and David Cameron would have departed the stage while Jeremy Corbyn looks all the more secure in post? It’s a salutary reminder that there are always risks in getting too far ahead of ourselves. But where there are risks, so there are opportunities. At the risk of setting up an almighty hostage to fortune,…

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Which party REMAIN and LEAVE voters now say they will vote for at the next general election

Which party REMAIN and LEAVE voters now say they will vote for at the next general election

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One of the irritating things about current polling is that not all firms are providing a breakdown based on referendum vote. This seems odd given that what people did on June 23rd says more about them politically than just about anything else. One pollster that does so in every survey is YouGov and the splits in the chart above are based on its latest poll. My plan is to track these numbers on a regular basis. Currently amongst REMAIN voters…

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The Tories lose all 4 seats they were defending on the worst election night for the party since TMay became leader

The Tories lose all 4 seats they were defending on the worst election night for the party since TMay became leader

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The LDs win 3 from CON on some huge swings Bovey (Teignbridge) result:LDEM: 43.9% (+20.3)CON: 33.1% (-4.2)IND: 8.9% (-1.5)LAB: 5.4% (-7.4)UKIP: 5.1% (+5.1)IND: 3.6% (+3.6) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) December 16, 2016 Chudleigh (Teignbridge):LDEM: 51.5% (+38.8)CON: 35.6% (+2.8)UKIP: 6.7% (+6.7)LAB: 6.1% (-8.8)Ind(s) and Grn didn't stand this time. — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) December 16, 2016 Blackdown (Taunton Deane) result:LDEM: 71.2% (+49.9)CON: 22.5% (-30.4)IND: 6.3% (+6.3)Other Ind and Grn didn't stand this time round. — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) December 15, 2016…

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Three CON defences in the South West amongst tonight’s 7 by-elections

Three CON defences in the South West amongst tonight’s 7 by-elections

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Higher Croft (Lab defence) on Blackburn with Darwen Result of council at last election (2016): Labour 45, Conservatives 16, Liberal Democrats 3 (Labour majority of 26) Result of ward at last election (2016): Labour 874 (74%), Conservative 309 (26%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 28,522 (44%) LEAVE 36,799 (56%) on a turnout of 65% Candidates duly nominated: Ian Grimshaw (UKIP), Amy Johnson (Lab), Maureen McGarvey (Con) Leven, Kennoway and Largon (SNP defence) on Fife Result of council at last election (2012):…

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A Richmond Park by election polling boost for the LDs from Ipsos MORI: up 4% to 14%

A Richmond Park by election polling boost for the LDs from Ipsos MORI: up 4% to 14%

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From today’s Ipsos MORI phone poll for the Standard Con 40 (-2) Lab 29 (-4) LD 14 (+4) UKIP 9 (+2 GRN 3 (nc) Yellows getting biggest support in Southern England .@IpsosMORI regional splits LDsNorth 12%Midlands 11%South 18% London 13%Scotland 11%No separate figure for SW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2016 TMay heading for cross-over perhaps in her satisfaction ratings TMay net @IpsosMORI satisfaction levels declining. How long before she's showing a negative? pic.twitter.com/aJutaW1cCj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December…

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