The FINAL local elections of 2016

The FINAL local elections of 2016

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December 21st 2016 Cranleigh West (Con defence) on Waverley Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 53, Farnham Residents 3, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 49) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,269, 1,155 (56%) Liberal Democrats 685, 515 (30%) Labour 321, 192 (14%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 44,341 (58%) LEAVE 31,601 (42%) on a turnout of 82% Candidates duly nominated: Richard Cole (Lib Dem), Rosaleen Egan (UKIP), Liz Townsend (Con) Result: Conservative 377…

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It’s a fallacy to presume that 60% of those who’ll actually vote in the Copeland by-election will have backed LEAVE

It’s a fallacy to presume that 60% of those who’ll actually vote in the Copeland by-election will have backed LEAVE

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A smaller proportion of LEAVERS appear to be participating in current elections than at EURef Whenever any forthcoming UK election is being discussed at the moment an almost knee-jerk assumption is being made that the LEAVE-REMAIN split will be exactly the same as happened in the BREXIT referendum. We’ve seen it this week as we looked at the chances in the Greater Manchester Mayoralty as well as since yesterday at the intriguing Copeland by-election where the bookies have the Tories…

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If the LDs run a high-octane campaign in Copeland then LAB will be in trouble

If the LDs run a high-octane campaign in Copeland then LAB will be in trouble

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The red team needs to select an unequivocal REMAINER Looking at the numbers it is very hard to see any party other than CON or LAB winning here. What would help LAB defend Copeland would either be the LDs deciding not to field a candidate or run a low key campaign. The latter might be difficult because the seat adjoins Tim Farron’s constituency where there are many activists and the party is fired up at the moment. Only last Thursday,…

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Six months on with little information from Mrs May what should Leavers be doing now?

Six months on with little information from Mrs May what should Leavers be doing now?

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Alastair Meeks continues his post-BREXIT analysis Yesterday I looked at how Remainers should look to the future.  Today I turn to Leavers.  This should be equally bracing. As a group, Leavers seem oddly discontented with their victory in the summer.  It’s as if, like the Sex Pistols, they didn’t know what they wanted but they knew how to get it.  Ever since, the quest to discover what Brexit means has continued, with only the most loyal Conservatives happy with the…

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Is it Darkest before the Dawn? A look at the battle for the House of Representatives in 2018.

Is it Darkest before the Dawn? A look at the battle for the House of Representatives in 2018.

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Qua  A guest slot by RKRKRK on prospects for the next big US elections The Democrats are reeling from an unexpected and disastrous election defeat. They are at a low ebb in Congress. Nancy Pelosi is an aging figure with an underwater approval rating. There seems to be a near-total absence of young talent in senior leadership positions for the Democratic Party. Republicans are free to gerrymander districts in most of the country. The situation certainly looks bleak- but is…

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The Tories must be hoping that the newly created elected mayoralties will lead to some CON victories

The Tories must be hoping that the newly created elected mayoralties will lead to some CON victories

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The blues are badly represented in this government tier When Zac Goldsmith failed in his effort to become London mayor in May the total number of these posts held by the Tories was reduced to just one – Torbay. This is an electoral segment where the party has struggled and even at its peak only held three of them. A big reason, of course is that they’ve tended to be set up in towns and cities where the Tories have…

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What’s missing this Christmas is any sign of peace and goodwill between LEAVE and REMAIN

What’s missing this Christmas is any sign of peace and goodwill between LEAVE and REMAIN

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Alastair Meeks on “The Remains of the Day” It’s coming up to six months since the referendum and there doesn’t seem to be much sign of peace or goodwill in the Christmas period between Remain and Leave.  Remain-supporting newspaper op-ed writers vituperate the behaviour of Leavers.   Leave-supporting newspaper op-ed writers screech at the perfidy of Remainers.  On Twitter, the Brexit debate has become egg-bound. Nor is this confined to the empty vessels making the most noise.  Opinion polls consistently show…

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