Alastair Meeks on what we don’t know about Copeland

Alastair Meeks on what we don’t know about Copeland

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Early next year we have an intriguing by-election lined up.  The day after Parliament rose for its recess, Jamie Reed announced that he would be standing down as MP for Copeland to take up a role at Sellafield.  This sent commentators scrabbling for their atlases and constituency guides.  The following salient facts have been noted: Copeland and its predecessor seat Whitehaven have been Labour-held since 1935. The Labour majority is, however, just 7% over the Conservatives. No sitting government has…

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After a dramatic political year David Herdson looks at the big picture

After a dramatic political year David Herdson looks at the big picture

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David Herdson outside a famous front door Globalisation is pushing democracy to breaking point. What will give first? It started with a ship; the Belen Quezeda to be precise. Built in 1884 in Aberdeen, she led a colourful life. Originally named the Zafiro, she ploughed her trade as a collier before being bought by and commissioned into the US navy when it was short of a supply vessel during the Spanish-American War. After her naval service, she passed through further…

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Local By-Election Results December 22nd / December 2016 Summary

Local By-Election Results December 22nd / December 2016 Summary

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Aylesham (Lab defence) on Dover Result: Labour 460 (62% -6%), Conservative 283 (38%, no candidate in 2015) Labour HOLD with a majority of 177 (24%) on a notional swing of 22% from Labour to Conservative Hedge End, Wildern (Lib Dem defence) on Eastleigh Result: Liberal Democrat 672 (64% +22%), Conservative 263 (25% -3%), Labour 107 (10% -2%) Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 409 (39%) on a swing of 12.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat December 2016 Local By-Election…

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Signs are that 2017 could be a big Westminster by-election year topping even 2016

Signs are that 2017 could be a big Westminster by-election year topping even 2016

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We know of two already and 2017 hasn’t even started One of the big trends in recent times, as the chart shows, has been for a big increase in by-elections caused by other than the death or health of the sitting MP. This year there’ve been seven contests with five of them in the “other” category. Ogmore and Toting were caused by the sitting MP either switching to the Welsh Assembly or becoming Mayor of London. Two of the other…

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The FINAL local elections of 2016

The FINAL local elections of 2016

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December 21st 2016 Cranleigh West (Con defence) on Waverley Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 53, Farnham Residents 3, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 49) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,269, 1,155 (56%) Liberal Democrats 685, 515 (30%) Labour 321, 192 (14%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 44,341 (58%) LEAVE 31,601 (42%) on a turnout of 82% Candidates duly nominated: Richard Cole (Lib Dem), Rosaleen Egan (UKIP), Liz Townsend (Con) Result: Conservative 377…

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It’s a fallacy to presume that 60% of those who’ll actually vote in the Copeland by-election will have backed LEAVE

It’s a fallacy to presume that 60% of those who’ll actually vote in the Copeland by-election will have backed LEAVE

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A smaller proportion of LEAVERS appear to be participating in current elections than at EURef Whenever any forthcoming UK election is being discussed at the moment an almost knee-jerk assumption is being made that the LEAVE-REMAIN split will be exactly the same as happened in the BREXIT referendum. We’ve seen it this week as we looked at the chances in the Greater Manchester Mayoralty as well as since yesterday at the intriguing Copeland by-election where the bookies have the Tories…

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If the LDs run a high-octane campaign in Copeland then LAB will be in trouble

If the LDs run a high-octane campaign in Copeland then LAB will be in trouble

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The red team needs to select an unequivocal REMAINER Looking at the numbers it is very hard to see any party other than CON or LAB winning here. What would help LAB defend Copeland would either be the LDs deciding not to field a candidate or run a low key campaign. The latter might be difficult because the seat adjoins Tim Farron’s constituency where there are many activists and the party is fired up at the moment. Only last Thursday,…

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Six months on with little information from Mrs May what should Leavers be doing now?

Six months on with little information from Mrs May what should Leavers be doing now?

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Alastair Meeks continues his post-BREXIT analysis Yesterday I looked at how Remainers should look to the future.  Today I turn to Leavers.  This should be equally bracing. As a group, Leavers seem oddly discontented with their victory in the summer.  It’s as if, like the Sex Pistols, they didn’t know what they wanted but they knew how to get it.  Ever since, the quest to discover what Brexit means has continued, with only the most loyal Conservatives happy with the…

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