Why I’ve backed Diane Abbott to be next Labour leader

Why I’ve backed Diane Abbott to be next Labour leader

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Embed from Getty Images I can’t quite believe I placed this bet Two of my underlying assumptions about politics in this country are 1) Jeremy Corbyn will be Labour leader at the next general election and 2) Were a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour party to lose a general election (especially if it is a comprehensive defeat) Labour will return to political sanity and appoint someone more centrist and electable, but what if those assumptions are wrong, cui bono? I’ve decided…

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CON starts 2017 by going straight for the Labour’s jugular in Copeland byelection – Corbyn’s opposition to nuclear

CON starts 2017 by going straight for the Labour’s jugular in Copeland byelection – Corbyn’s opposition to nuclear

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Tory leaflet in Copeland on what looks set to be LAB's weak spot – JC's views on things nuclear Pic via @MrBrownsays pic.twitter.com/oWQiarrzON — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2017 If it’s a LAB hold then it will be in spite of JC not because of him Even though the sitting MP has yet to resign and no candidates have been selected campaigning has already started in the Copeland by-election – the first such contest in a LAB-CON marginal in…

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How long can May’s honeymoon period go on?

How long can May’s honeymoon period go on?

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Most other mid-term boosts have dissolved after 6 months If the five years of this parliament were compressed into the space of a football match, we’d have only just reached the half-hour mark. It feels like longer, though that might be because there’s been a lot packed in: six leadership elections across the four main parties, a change of PM, an historic referendum, and Labour’s biggest crisis since at least the early 1980s. In the normal scheme of things, Labour…

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UKIP has suffered most in real elections in LEAVE areas since BREXIT – the pro-EU LDs the best

UKIP has suffered most in real elections in LEAVE areas since BREXIT – the pro-EU LDs the best

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A few months ago Harry Hayfield, PB’s local election specialist, introduced a new element in his regular monitoring of local by-election: dividing them up into whether the local authority areas voted REMAIN or LEAVE on June 23rd. This enables us to compare the two areas. A lot of focus has been put on seat changes but the above data looks at how the vote shares have changed in the two types of seat. The vote change relates to what happened…

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The LEAVE campaign’s message on the NHS is still resonating strongly with those who voted for BREXIT

The LEAVE campaign’s message on the NHS is still resonating strongly with those who voted for BREXIT

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The majority of leavers think BREXIT will be good for the NHS The latest YouGov out today, asks a question that has nor been put for some time – whether people think that leaving the EU will be good for the NHS. This was, of course, the biggest message from the officially designated LEAVE campaign and was the main theme of its referendum broadcasts. There was dispute over the £350m figure but the campaign held firm and continued using it…

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At some stage some of the “will Trump survive” bets will be value

At some stage some of the “will Trump survive” bets will be value

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Donald Trump betting odds from @LadPolitics pic.twitter.com/MkiO5evY6G — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 5, 2017 With tensions growing between Trump and the Republican party these are latest Trump betting odds from Betfred. pic.twitter.com/MQx4wcEP3S — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 5, 2017 But I’m not tempted at the moment In the days leading up to Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20th we are going to see a lot of speculation on whether he’s going to survive. Certainly his links with Putin and the…

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Unite’s election could be a game changer for Corbyn

Unite’s election could be a game changer for Corbyn

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Don Brind on the big LAB movement battle If Len McCluskey had had his way, Jeremy Corbyn would never have become Labour leader. The general secretary of Unite opposed the Miliband reforms to Labour’s election system that gave the serial rebel a path to the job he’d never dreamt of doing. After his second landslide in 2016 Corbyn looked unassailable. The official line from the Team Corbyn, as well as senior figures like deputy leader Tom Watson, is that the…

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A measure of the anti-elite backlash will be when when a non-dark blue educated leader becomes a GE winner

A measure of the anti-elite backlash will be when when a non-dark blue educated leader becomes a GE winner

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It is not hard to spot the trend here General Election Winning party leader Alma mater 1945 Clement Attlee University of Oxford 1950 Clement Attlee University of Oxford 1951 Winston Churchill Non graduate 1955 Anthony Eden University of Oxford 1959 Harold Macmillan University of Oxford 1964 Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1966 Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1970 Edward Heath University of Oxford 1974 Feb Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1974 Oct Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1979 Margaret Thatcher…

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