Stoke Central, where MP Tristram Hunt is resigning, could be a tight four-way contest

Stoke Central, where MP Tristram Hunt is resigning, could be a tight four-way contest

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Westminster by-election alert. Stoke Central later in year following MP's appointment as Director of the V&A pic.twitter.com/GQ9lRUgqUt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2017 Constituency map Stoke Central where there's to be a by-election later in the year pic.twitter.com/QjtpTTefpC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2017 Just got 50/1 on the LDs in Stoke Central with Ladbrokes. They've historical strength in the seat & were 2nd at GE2005 & GE2010 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2017 Is Hunt going…

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Corbyn’s relaunch week ends with the LDs taking a LAB council seat in one of its heartlands on a 36% swing

Corbyn’s relaunch week ends with the LDs taking a LAB council seat in one of its heartlands on a 36% swing

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And the yellows pick up a CON seat on a big swing The 2017 council by-election season has opened with the Lib Dems taking seats from both CON and LAB on big swings. The results are above. In Sunderland, where only 39% voted REMAIN on June 23rd, Farron’s party had the most surprising result. It appeared to be a LAB-UKIP contest and few anticipated a move on this scale. Last time the LD got just 4.5% in the seat and…

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The 2017 local by-election season opens with a LAB defence in Sunderland and a CON one in Herts

The 2017 local by-election season opens with a LAB defence in Sunderland and a CON one in Herts

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Sandhill on Sunderland caused by the resignation of the sitting Labour councillor for non attendance Result of council at last election (2016): Labour 67, Conservatives 6, Liberal Democrat 1, Independent 1 (Labour majority of 59) Result of ward at last election (2015): Labour 2,121 (55%), UKIP 1,003 (26%), Conservative 607 (16%), Liberal Democrat 135 (4%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 51,930 (39%) LEAVE 82,394 (61%) on a turnout of 65% Candidates duly nominated: Bryan Foster (UKIP), Helmut Izaks (Green), Stephen…

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Professor Anthony King, one of Britain’s leading psephologists, dies at the age of 82

Professor Anthony King, one of Britain’s leading psephologists, dies at the age of 82

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Prof Anthony King being awarded, alongside Prof Ivor Crewe, the 2014 Practical Politics Book of the Year award Professor Anthony King, one of Britain’s leading political scientists, has died at the age of 82. He’s perhaps best known for his appearances on election results programmes and his lucid analysis. From 1983 – 2005, he was BBC TV analyst on General Election nights. Also, every month for many years, he was the main commentator on political opinion polls for The Daily…

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Matthew Shaddick: Why the betting markets are over-rating Marine Le Pen’s chances

Matthew Shaddick: Why the betting markets are over-rating Marine Le Pen’s chances

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Shadsy of Ladbrokes on how punters are viewing the French Presidential race Ladbrokes are currently building up a very big liability on a Marine Le Pen victory in May’s French Presidential election. I’d be very surprised if that isn’t also the case with all of the other fixed-odds bookmakers offering odds. I’m happy with that, as I can see some very good reasons why the betting markets are over-rating her chances. 1. It’s possible that a lot of people betting…

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Trump goes on the offensive against the media – a sign of the next four years?

Trump goes on the offensive against the media – a sign of the next four years?

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At least it’s going to be interesting With just nine days to go till his inauguration Donald Trump has held a major press conference dealing with how his business interests will operate while he’s in the White House, the Mexican wall and who’ll pay for it, and, of course. the revelations in the past 24 hours about his alleged relationship with Russia and what is said to have gone on in that hotel room. The clip above shows how he…

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Experto credite, you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows

Experto credite, you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows

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Graphic credit: Twitter Economists have had their Michael Fish moment, so said Andy Haldane, chief economist of the Bank of England speaking at the Institute of Government last week.  Having predicted a post-Brexit referendum crash that failed to happen, he believes the profession of economics is to some degree in crisis.  But it raises a wider question: what weight should we put in the judgements of experts?  Have we had enough of experts? This is a question of much recent…

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The PB/Polling Matters Podcast: Labour’s re-brand & why 2017 won’t be all plain sailing for Mrs. May

The PB/Polling Matters Podcast: Labour’s re-brand & why 2017 won’t be all plain sailing for Mrs. May

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On the first PB/Polling Matters podcast of 2017 Keiran discusses the future of the Labour Party with the General Secretary of the Fabian Society Andrew Harrop. They discuss Corbyn’s recent rebrand as a left-wing populist and Labour’s mounting problems including Scotland, Brexit and the daunting electoral math faced in Westminster ahead of the presumed General Election in 2020 (and what to do about it). Keiran also takes us through some recent polling and explains why he thinks 2017 will be…

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