UKIP now down to 30% chance in Stoke Central on Betfair. Sharp fall following the unravelling of Nuttall's Hillsborough claims pic.twitter.com/M4LEyThH6S — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2017 Latest Paul Nuttall leaflet in Stoke Central pic.twitter.com/4nrsAzAj6q — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2017
Embed from Getty Images Labour probably has one last chance to return to relevancy, writes Joff Wild. Who members choose as the party’s next leader will make or break it. The death of social democracy in Europe, it turns out, has been greatly exaggerated. A look at opinion polls in three of the continent’s four G8 economies shows that the centre-left is competitive and could be governing by the end of the year. That the Democrat party in Italy,…
As a consequence of Labour right wing MPs deciding to perform the Farewell Symphony through the medium of interpretive dance, political observers have two Parliamentary by-elections to brighten up a dank February. In normal circumstances these would both be easy Labour holds. Yet, following a cascade of money that has no doubt been prompted by Labour’s speleological exploration of new polling depths, the prices offered by the bookies suggest something very different. In Stoke Central, Labour are narrow favourites ahead…
EXCLUSIVE: UKIP Leader Paul Nuttall admits his claims about losing close friends at #Hillsborough are false https://t.co/CtpCcAh7fA pic.twitter.com/jdzxz7C2aq — Hits Radio News | Liverpool & North West (@HitsLpoolNews) February 14, 2017 Suppose it's time for this again. pic.twitter.com/ylBdwnxGF7 — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) February 14, 2017 Here's an old UKIP leaflet in which Paul Nuttall claims to be a "former professional footballer". He isn't. https://t.co/DTTrbEykeG pic.twitter.com/36NC9rGmJE — Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) February 14, 2017 Boost for Nuttall in Stoke Central. Nigel Farage…
Now LAB's Stoke byelection candidate gets into trouble for offensive tweets aimed at women. Good for LDs? https://t.co/9JBN21pP0x — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2017 Snell’s controversial Tweets won’t cause switching to UKIP but could depress turnout In this day and age I had take it almost as read that before a candidate is selected for a high profile by-election defence then there is some serious examination of what he/she has published on social media to check wther there is…
But remember December’s Richmond Park betting Like BREXIT, Trump and Richmond Park the betting could be pointing us in the wrong direction It has become widely accepted since the EU referendum and the White House Race that the polls and the betting might not be as good a guide to political outcomes as some might hope. In fact looking at Richmond Park on Betfair 2 days beforehand the price of the eventual winner was even longer than Trump or Leave….
There’ve been two excellent pieces of journalism today on the Stoke Central by-election which both provide some insights and in broad terms are in the same area. The FT’s Sebastian Payne has the video report above and the excellent Stephen Bush in the New Statesman has stuck his neck out and is suggesting that LAB’s organisational strength will see it home. This is from the Bush piece: “..Ukip have a problem: finding their voters and getting them to the polling…
Labour’s polling misery continues One very striking feature of the latest YouGov poll out this morning is LAB position amongst the lower socio-economic groups. The numbers are in the chart. As can be seen in this segment LAB is on just 20% which is 3% behind UKIP. Will have to see a week on Thursday whether these movements are refelected in the latest batch of Westminster by elections. Stoke Central clearly, has a large proportion of C2DEs and if this…