Just where is Labour’s floor for 2020? One of the best political tips of the 2015 general election was to back Labour for 0-5 seats in Scotland. When William Hill first put the market up – after the independence referendum – they marked that outcome at no less than 125/1. (I apologise for not being able to namecheck the PBer who tipped the bet; I forget who it was.) That price was a testament to the inertia of thinking as…
Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Summary : February 2017 February local by election aggregate % vote shares with changes on last time CON 24%-5 LAB 24%-5 LD 28%+18 UKIP 9%-6 OTH 9%+3 Liberal Democrats 7,162 votes (28% +18% on last time) winning 7 seats (+4 seats on last time) Labour 6,305 votes (24% -5% on last time) winning 5 seats (+1 seat on last time) Conservatives 6,255 votes (24% -5% on last time) winning 2 seats (-7 seats on last time)…
It is in the nature of political junkies, like sharks, to be constantly moving forwards, and like goldfish, to be constantly forgetting what has just happened. We should try to do better. In the wake of two extraordinary by-elections we should reflect on their implications. Because, as it happens this time, their implications are manifold. The Conservatives did incredibly well This is one of those rare occasions where the media have actually underplayed something. The Conservatives’ victory in Copeland is…
Once again an election for a Westminster seat has highlighted the struggle UKIP has with first past the post elections. Even though it was placed third in terms of national vote share at GE2015 it only managed one of the 650 MPs. That was, of course, Carswell’s Clacton seat which he’d won in the 2014 by election when he’d stood as a defector incumbent. Getting to be top dog in one of the Westminster seats requires a very different approach…
Is this how John McDonnell topples Corbyn? If Corbyn doesn't improve in the poll. From earlier on this month. https://t.co/gPLPTnD88h pic.twitter.com/SiLovgH2IA — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 24, 2017 If Corbyn is toppled will it be one of his inner circle that wields the dagger? Earlier on this month John McDonnell gave an interview in which he said the polls will reverse in the next 12 months. We’ve already seen articles saying that McDonnell is taking over. If McDonnell feels that Labour…
Tories GAIN Copeland. Surely Corbyn has to realise he is toxic with voters? pic.twitter.com/2Q29M0Z58y — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 24, 2017 Copeland, result:CON: 44.3% (+8.5)LAB: 37.3% (-4.9)LDEM: 7.2% (+3.8)UKIP: 6.5% (-9.0)IND: 2.6% (+2.6)GRN: 1.7% (-1.3) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 24, 2017 #Copeland declaration imminent. A reminder there's been nothing directly comparable to this since the 19th century https://t.co/he6JBa4Y8B pic.twitter.com/90mk2A7tFv — Number Cruncher Politics UK (@NCPoliticsUK) February 24, 2017 In Copeland, Labour came very close to saying vote for us or…
Gareth Snell the embodiment of David Cameron's maxim about Twitter wins the Stoke by-election. Paul Nuttall loses in the capital of Brexit pic.twitter.com/NOeE2kJC79 — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 24, 2017 Stoke on Trent Central, result:LAB: 37.1% (-2.2)UKIP: 24.7% (+2.1)CON: 24.3% (+1.8)LDEM: 9.8% (+5.7)GRN: 1.4% (-2.2) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 24, 2017 Stoke is only the 6th time in a by election in England since 1970 that the government has seen their share of the vote rise – John Curtice —…
Interesting via @AndrewSparrow https://t.co/pdMYYngJqi pic.twitter.com/Wb4kVE1qa1 — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 23, 2017 Chatter is Labour hold Stoke, Tories take Copeland but consensus so often wrong! results in a few hours that could change political mood — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) February 23, 2017 Looks like party estimates of 30% turnout in Stoke could come true. Utterly dire – and could swing the entire result. From today's WaughZone pic.twitter.com/8ZtAN6vVjl — Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) February 23, 2017 Latest Betfair odds implies UKIP have…