Mega By-Election Week (Day Two) plus a Copeland cartoon

Mega By-Election Week (Day Two) plus a Copeland cartoon

Winklebury on Basingstoke and Deane (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Labour 824 (62% +32%), Conservative 472 (35% -11%), Liberal Democrat 42 (3% -3%) Labour GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 352 (27%) on a swing of 21.5% from Con to Lab Chigwell Village on Epping Forest (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2016): Conservatives 35, Ratepayers 13, Independents 3, Liberal Democrats 3, Green Party 2, United Kingdom Independence Party 2 (Conservative…

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Applying huge governing party national poll leads has been a very poor guide to Westminster by-elections

Applying huge governing party national poll leads has been a very poor guide to Westminster by-elections

Beckenham Nov 1997. (LAB polls leads 30%+) Eddisbury Jul 1999 (LAB poll leads 20%+) Kensington & Chelsea Nov 1999 (LAB poll leads 20%+) Why the betting markets might be getting Stoke Central and more particularly Copeland wrong Almost ever since the Copeland by-election was declared the Conservatives have been a very strong odds on favourites. As has been pointed out repeatedly for them to take a seat off Labour while being the governing party would be an extraordinary achievement and…

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Why I’m betting that Paul Nuttall will be the next party leader out

Why I’m betting that Paul Nuttall will be the next party leader out

Next leader to leave – William Hill 6/4 Nuttall (In from 9/4) 6/4 Corbyn 5/1 May 8/1 Sturgeon 12/1 Farron At the weekend I had a bet at 9/4 with William Hill that Paul Nuttall will be the next party leader to exit his post. That’s since tightened to 6/4 which still looks a good punt. Clearly amongst the other options Corbyn is most at risk but as we’ve seen he is a stubborn old man and the party rules…

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Storm Doris to hit Stoke and Copeland tomorrow with winds of up to 80 mph

Storm Doris to hit Stoke and Copeland tomorrow with winds of up to 80 mph

What’s this going to do to the by elections? With 24 hours ago to the crucial by elections in Stoke central and Copeland and the Met Office has issued a warning about the weather tomorrow. As can be seen above things look as though they could be quite nasty and it’s hard to see how this will not impact on turnout. The idea that poor weather can cut the number of participants in elections has been knocked on the head…

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Mega By-Election Week : Day One (February 21st 2017)

Mega By-Election Week : Day One (February 21st 2017)

This week will see six by-elections but not all on the same day. There is a by-election tonight, three tomorrow night and on Thursday two Parliamentary by-elections that may break a duck that has lasted anything from 35 years to 57 years and create a vacancy at the head of the Opposition. But first, as they say in all the great stage plays, we have the opening curtain Winklebury on Basingstoke and Deane (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result…

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Fifty shades of grey voters. Corbyn’s punishing polling with older voters.

Fifty shades of grey voters. Corbyn’s punishing polling with older voters.

Corbyn is doing worse with older voters, and history shows older voters turn out to vote and are a growing demographic. A few weeks ago whilst looking at the polling entrails I was struck by how much of a lead with older voters Mrs May was developing over Jeremy Corbyn in the best Prime Minister polling. As we can see with the chart above, there’s a clear correlation with the older you get, the more you prefer Mrs May as…

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Stoke Central is set to rank alongside Darlington in 1983 as one of the great by-elections of modern times

Stoke Central is set to rank alongside Darlington in 1983 as one of the great by-elections of modern times

An unlikely LAB hold in Darlington kept an unelectable leader in office So much has happened in the Stoke central by-election that it it looks set to take its place in by election history alongside what many regard as the most sensational of all, Darlington, in 1983. That took place exactly a month after the Bermondsey when Simon Hughes had an unlikely and still controversial win against LAB. The political atmosphere at the time, like today, was highly charged as…

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Impressions from Cumbria: Labour will win if they can turn their vote out

Impressions from Cumbria: Labour will win if they can turn their vote out

Copeland gives a good demonstration of why governments so rarely gain by-elections A wet and windy Saturday in Copeland is neither the time nor place to be wearing £250 brogues, as one volunteer reporting for duty in Egremont discovered (he was later spotted sporting rather less stylish but more functional off-white trainers). I mention this not as advice – it’s too late for that – nor to poke fun at the volunteer, who shall remain nameless (it wasn’t me!), but…

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